ISMA Lowers Gross Sugar Production Estimates To 264 Lakh Tonnes

The Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association revised on Wednesday its gross sugar production estimates to 264 lakh tonnes for the 2024–25 season after the gross diversion of 35 lakh tonnes of sugar for ethanol production.

As of Monday, sugar production reached 233.09 lakh tonnes, with 228 mills currently operational across the country, according to ISMA. A sugar season usually begins in October or November and continues until March or April of the following year.

On Jan. 31, ISMA issued its second advance estimates for the 2024–25 season, projecting a gross sugar production of approximately 272.5 lakh tonnes, following the diversion of 37.5 lakh tonnes of sugar towards ethanol production.

In Maharashtra and Karnataka, challenges due to diminished sugarcane yield per unit area, resulted in reduced cane availability. Certain mills in Karnataka plan to reopen during a special season beginning in June/July to compensate for the shortfall.

Uttar Pradesh, the second largest sugar producer, can prolong the crushing season into April with enhanced plant cane recovery and yield. However, some mills in east and central Uttar Pradesh anticipate closure by the end of March.

As of March 10, the all-India gross sugar production stood at 233.1 lakh tonnes. Among the states, Uttar Pradesh led with a net sugar production of 78.8 lakh tonnes, followed closely by Maharashtra at 78.1 lakh tonnes. Karnataka's production was 38.9 lakh tonnes, while the combined production of other states amounted to 37.3 lakh tonnes.

Regarding factory operations, Uttar Pradesh saw 122 factories commence operations, with 26 closures and 96 remaining operational. Maharashtra saw 200 factories start, 161 close and 39 continue operations. In Karnataka, 78 factories began, 72 closed and six remained operational. Other states had 132 factories initiate operations, 45 close and 87 stay operational.

Overall, across India, 532 factories started, 304 closed and 228 were still in operation.

Based on the revised estimates, the balance for the current season has also been revised, as opening stocks are expected at 80 lakh tonnes. Total sugar availability is estimated at 344 lakh tonnes, exceeding domestic consumption of 280 lakh tonnes. Exports are projected at 10 lakh tonnes, with closing stocks of 54 lakh tonnes.

The favourable conditions are setting the stage for the 2025–26 sugar season, supported by a strong southwest monsoon in 2024 and ample water availability in reservoirs. Planting has reportedly increased in Maharashtra and Karnataka compared to the previous year.

The 2025–26 crushing season is projected to commence on schedule in October 2025, with an estimated closing stock of approximately 54 lakh tonnes, considered more than sufficient.

Uttar Pradesh and other north Indian states have shown significant progress in varietal replacement activities. The improvement is expected to translate into enhanced yields and recovery rates in the 2025–26 sugar season for these regions.

Cane-payment progress has accelerated. Approximately 80% of cane payments have been completed for the 2024–25 sugar season, a notable increase from the 69% paid from mid-January 2025 onwards. In addition, an impressive 99.9% of cane payments for the 2023–24 sugar season have been fulfilled to date.