8th Pay Commission: Is 18-Month Arrear + July 2027 Salary Hike Rollout Best Case Scenario For Employees?
The 8th Pay Commission, similar to previous pay panels, is expected to take more than a year to submit its recommendations after being formally constituted.
Following the Union Cabinet meeting last week, the hike in dearness allowance and dearness relief was announced, but there was no update related to the constitution of 8th Pay Commission.
The formation of the panel, which is the first step for the once-in-a-decade overhaul of salaries of central government employees, received the Cabinet's nod in January this year. However, it remains to be officially setup as the Terms of Reference (ToR) are yet to be approved.
The Centre had, back in January, sought inputs from the staff side of National Council-Joint Consultative Machinery (NC-JCM), for the ToR, which will act as a broad framework for the commission.
The staff side of NC-JCM, the top forum representing central government employees, had forwarded its recommendation for the ToR in January itself.
Over the past few months, NC-JCM members who spoke to NDTV Profit indicated that the ToR should get approved at the earliest. Most recently, Shiv Gopal Mishra, the secretary general of the staff side of NC-JCM, told this publication in August that he hopes the ToR to be cleared "soon".
Speculations are rife that an announcement could be made ahead of Diwali, but there is no official update regarding the same.
Mid-2027 Rollout On Cards?
As per the precedent, pay commissions require between 18 to 24 months to submit their reports, and the same gets scrutinised by the government for three to nine months before getting the final nod.
The 7th Pay Commission, which was constituted in February 2014, had submitted its report to the Centre in November 2015.
If one goes by a similar time frame, then the 8th Pay Commission, even if setup this month, may not be able to submit its report before April 2027. However, NC-JCM members, in an earlier conversation with NDTV Profit, explained that the panel may act in an expedited manner this time and submit its report earlier than the usual time frame.
There is a possibility that the report gets submitted by 2026-end or early 2027, and the salary hike is rolled out from July 2027, a senior union leader, who was privy to the 7th Pay Commission negotiations a decade ago, said last month. "But nothing can be said for sure," the person said, on the condition of anonymity.
Meanwhile, Mishra told NDTV Profit in August that irrespective of whenever the 8th Pay Commission comes into effect, the salary should be hiked retrospectively from January 2026.
"The process will probably take time. The 8th Pay Commission will be set up and hold deliberations with the stakeholders, and then submit its recommendations. Then it will be approved by the Centre... What we are saying is that irrespective of the delay, the effective date of salary hike must be Jan. 1, 2026," stated Mishra, who is also the general secretary of the All India Railwaymen's Federation.
In this backdrop, central government employees may consider a July 2027 rollout, along with 18-month arrears, as the best case scenario.
