Telecom Q4 Results Preview: Stable Mobile Revenue Growth, But For Two Lesser Days — ICICI Securities

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ICICI Securities Report

Telcos took tariff hikes in July 2024, which boosted average revenue per users in previous two quarters; some residual benefit should show in Q4 FY25E for Reliance Jio, but for two lesser days. Subs net add has normalised in mobile, and acceleration may be visible in FWA, particularly for RJio. Our Q4 FY25 estimates point to mobile services revenue dip for Bharti Airtel (down 0.1% QoQ) and Vodafone Idea Ltd. (1.2%), but RJio’s revenue could grow at 2% QoQ.

Bharti Hexacom Ltd.’s revenue (+2.7% QoQ) to benefit from seasonality in roaming services in Rajasthan circle. Subs add for Bharti could be 3 million, and RJio at 4 mn (partly benefitting from strong net add in FWA); Vodafone Idea may lose 1 million subs.

Bharti India’s reported numbers would include Indus Towers’ complete consolidation due to the change in company status to subsidiary, from earlier associate.

Tata Communications’ data revenue performance may improve at 4% QoQ/ 9.5% YoY growth while Ebitda margin could dip 5bp QoQ on change in mix towards digital services. Consolidated Ebitda to grow 2.4% QoQ. Indus Towers’ (Indus) tenancy adds (+10,000) may accelerate with Vodafone Idea rolling out 4G network but its Ebitda growth may appear optically weak due to a one-off in Q3 FY25 on provision reversal.

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