Telecom Q4 Preview - Airtel, RJio’s Mobile Revenue To Grow >10% YoY Despite Nil Tariff Hike: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities Report

Our Q4 FY24 estimates suggest a steady quarter for Bharti Airtel Ltd. India, aided by average revenue per user expansion of 8% YoY to Rs 208, and continued strong performance of its non-mobile segment. Slower QoQ ARPU rise is due to one lower day. Airtel Africa’s performance may be hindered by African currencies’ devaluation, but the underlying constant currency growth is likely to be healthy.

Reliance Jio’s subs growth may be elevated with a possible 11 million net add; however, ARPU growth may be restricted due to adoption of free data by 5G users.

Bharti India’s Ebitda margin is likely to be flattish QoQ due to 5G-related costs, while RJio’s margin may be flattish despite 5G cost not being booked in profit and loss.

Vodafone Idea Ltd.’s performance may be muted. Tata Communications Ltd.’s underlying data performance may be muted with 5.5% YoY organic growth, while reported growth is likely to have revenue from Kaleyra and The Switch merger.

Data Ebitda margin to be flattish QoQ which means healthy margin in Kaleyra is holding well.

Indus Towers Ltd.’s tenancy adds may be strong (+6,000) led by Bharti Airtel’s rural 4G rollout, which implies Indus can report Ebitda growth of 7.4% YoY.

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