As per the brokerages scenario analysis, it estimates an Rs 0.9/scm Ebitda margin gain for IGL (we currently build in Rs 5.9/6.5/6.5 per scm Ebitda margin for IGL in FY26/27/28). Hence, if this tax change materializes, it would lead to 8%/15%/15% increase in our FY26/27/28 PAT estimates.
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Motilal Oswal Report
As per media reports and our channel checks, Indraprastha Gas Ltd. could see a potential Ebitda/standar cubic metre upside of 16-20% due to a change in the tax rate on gas sourced from Gujarat (official confirmation is awaited).
Moreover, IGL could see Ebitda margin benefits of Rs 0.7-1.3/scm from Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board’s move to a two-zone tariff regime. We have a Buy rating on IGL.
While Mahanagar Gas has been our preferred pick in the CGD space, we estimate a minor Ebitda upside of 3-4% for Mahanagar Gas from this tax change (if confirmed).
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