With ~56% expansion in bed capacity expected over FY25-28, Rainbow Children's Healthcare's growth momentum should accelerate meaningfully. Recent foray into IVF, premium baby/mother care products, acquisitions and ongoing expansion of quaternary care are additional growth levers.
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We initiate coverage on Rainbow Children’s Medicare Ltd. with a Buy rating and target price of Rs 1,670, based on a P/E of 40x Sep 2027E.
Rainbow is India’s only listed pediatric and maternity care chain, operating 22 hospitals and 5 clinics with ~2,235 beds across nine cities.
Over the next three years, we expect Rainbow to evolve into a pan India brand in pediatric and maternity care, as they start building their presence beyond South.
Key initiatives include a large hub hospital in Gurugram (North India) and recent acquisition of a hospital in Guwahati (presence in Northeast).
During FY20–25, the company consolidated its southern footprint, delivering robust 16%/ 20%/ 37% revenue/ Ebitda/ net earnings CAGR, with volumes compounding at 8–9% (in line with bed capacity) and average revenue per occupied bed (average revenue per occupied bed) nearly doubling, lifting return on capital employed from 17% to 20%.
Rainbow is aptly placed to benefit from the structural transition of paediatric care from general hospital wards to specialty hospitals. JAMA data underscores this trend in the US, where pediatric hospitals expanded bed capacity over the past decade while general hospitals reduced pediatric beds.
We expect Rainbow to sustain its industry-leading 34% Ebitda, albeit capped, and forecast 13%/14%/20% revenue/Ebitda/earnings per share compound annual growth rate over FY25-28E.
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