ONGC Q4 Results Review: ICICI Securities Maintains 'Buy', Sees 45% Potential Upside

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ICICI Securities Report

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.’s Q4 FY25 saw adjusted Ebitda/PAT (standalone) of Rs 181 billion/Rs 64.5 billion (9%/-35% YoY) with 7% revenue growth YoY.

However, this was offset by sharply higher exploration write-offs, denting net earnings. Consolidated Ebitda/PAT stood at Rs 263/Rs 73 billion (+10%/-35% YoY). FY25 Ebitda/PAT (standalone) of Rs 724/Rs 356 billion, rose 4.6%/fell 10% YoY.

Oil & gas output for Q4/FY25 slipped 1.8%/1.7% YoY to 10.3mt/41.1mt. Management guidance remains bullish for oil and gas output with ~15–18mmscmd gas production growth and ~20kb/d of oil production growth over FY26–28.

Realisations trends, however, are bearish; our revised estimate is USD 67–70/bbl for FY26–27, driving EPS downgrades of 18.1%/15.5% for FY26E/FY27E (FY28E of Rs 51.4/share introduced). Target price revised to Rs 350. Retain Buy.

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