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Prabhudas Lilladher Report
Indian oil and gas sector’s operating profit is expected to improve by 6% QoQ to Rs 978 billion. Upstream companies like Oil and Natural Gas Ltd. and Oil India Ltd. are expected to show marginal improvement in production with net crude realization of $77.5/barrel of oil post windfall tax.
Similarly, gas realisation will remain unchanged QoQ at $6.5/metric million British thermal unit. City gas distributions are expected to report 7-12% YoY volume growth with strong Ebitda/standard cubic metre amid decline in spot LNG prices.
Oil marketing companies are expected to report moderate gross refining margins and gross marketing margins.
We expect Reliance Industries Ltd.’s oil-to-chemical segment’s operating profitability to improve on account of better refining margins although petchem spreads will continue to remain weak.
We build in steady telecom performance with 2%QoQ subscriber growth and flat average revenue per user; retail revenue growth is also expected to be steady.
Oil India and Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. remain our top pick in the sector.
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