NMDC Stock Gets 'Buy' Upgrade From Systematix With 20% Upside Post Q1 Results — Check Target Price

NDTV Profit’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer NDTV Profit’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy. 

Systematix Report

NMDC Ltd. has reported robust volumes this year aligning closer to the management’s aspiration to deliver 55mt volumes. Over the April to July FY26 period, NMDC has posted 33% and 14% YoY growth in iron ore production and sales, respectively.

Further, NMDC commenced pellet exports in Q4, recording notable increase in topline contribution (8% in Q1 FY26 versus 1% CPLY) and turned profitable this quarter.

The company also revised iron ore prices by 7%-8% MoM for August deliveries. We revise our FY26/FY27 Ebitda estimate higher by 12%/13% based on 14% and 8% sales volume growth in FY26 and FY27, respectively.

We value NMDC at 5.5x FY27E EV/Ebitda with a revised target price of Rs 83/share, implying an upside of 20% from CMP.

The company is progressing towards its 100mt capacity target with a revised estimated outlay of Rs 720 billion. NMDC spent Rs 34 billion capex in FY25 and expects over Rs 100 billion in capex spending for the next two years.

Upgrade to Buy.

Risks and re-rating levers:

Weak global iron ore pricing, sluggish volumes, or extended monsoons are key risks. Demonstration of continued monthly volume growth is likely to be a rerating driver.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

DISCLAIMER

This report is authored by an external party. NDTV Profit does not vouch for the accuracy of its contents nor is responsible for them in any way. The contents of this section do not constitute investment advice. For that you must always consult an expert based on your individual needs. The views expressed in the report are that of the author entity and do not represent the views of NDTV Profit.

Users have no license to copy, modify, or distribute the content without permission of the Original Owner.