For Q3 FY25, among tier-1s, the brokerage expects HCLTech/LTIMindtree to lead revenue growth due to seasonally strong software biz./Improving biz. prospects with 3.7%/1.3% CC growth, followed by TCS/Infosys/Tech Mahindra/Wipro with 0.8%/0.2%/Flat/-0.8% growth.
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DRChoksey Report
For Indian IT Services, Q2 FY25 commentary suggested bottoming of weak growth as evinced by unchanged/slightly upgraded outlook for FY25, flattish headcount growth and nil project cancellations. However, for Q3 FY25, we expect constant currency revenue growth to range between 0.1% to 3.7% for tier 1 names, and between -0.2% to +4% for tier-2 names.
Key reasons for muted revenue growth include:
Seasonal furloughs and cross-currency headwinds,
Largely unchanged demand environment/macros (as also observed in Accenture’s Q1 FY25 commentary),
decline in trailing twelve months- total contract value (at industry level) by 4% YoY (only two of nine under coverage reported growth), suggesting lower short term visibility.
Operating profit margin to see a movement ranging from -117bps to +96bps, with weakness attributed to muted revenue growth and limited margin levers.
Key commentary to watch will be -
Client budgeting and spend outlook for CY25 amid change in U.S administration,
BFSI spends (fewer than expected rate cuts for CY’25), and
Recovery timeline of discretionary spends.
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