Infosys Q4 Results Review: IDBI Capital Revises Rating To 'Hold', Cuts Target Price

While IDBI Capital retains a long-term constructive stance, but reduces Infosys' target price, reflecting prevailing challenges in terms of tariff, geopolitical uncertainties, and trade barriers.

Infosys reported a 4.2% QoQ topline decline in constant currency to $4,730 million, primarily driven by a reduction in third-party contributions and seasonal softness, says the brokerage. (Photo Source: Vijay Sartape /NDTV Profit)

Due to volatile demand environment, margins could see pressure and acquisition related costs which would be offset by ramp up in mega deals, no ramp down costs, lower third party costs, more headroom driven by project maximus, low ratio of AI driven efficiency to clients. Hence, the brokerage expects the margins to remain in the same band of 20-22%.

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IDBI Capital Report

Infosys Ltd. reported a 4.2% QoQ topline decline in constant currency to $4,730 million, primarily driven by a reduction in third-party contributions and seasonal softness. Management signaled a further decline in third-party revenue in FY26 versus FY25, while persistent macroeconomic headwinds and protracted client decision cycles are expected to constrain organic revenue growth to 0–3% in FY26, excluding acquisitions.

Notably, the company maintained a robust deal pipeline of $2.6 billion (+4% QoQ), with 63% net new total contract value and no significant delays in deal conversions, offering a degree of resilience. The absence of major rampdowns further provides near-term cushion to growth. Consequently, we forecast CC revenue growth of 4% in FY26 and 7% in FY27, with Ebit margins maintained within the guided 21–22% range. Recent strategic acquisitions—MRE Consulting (energy vertical) and Missing Link (cybersecurity)—underscore Infosys' focus on capability augmentation.

While we retain a long-term constructive stance, we revise our rating to Hold and reduce the target price to Rs 1,500 (20x FY27E EPS) from Rs. 2,052, reflecting prevailing challenges in terms of tariff, geopolitical uncertainties, and trade barriers.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

IDBI Capital Infosys Q4FY25 Results Review.pdf
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Also Read: Infosys Q4 Results Review — Top-Line Miss; Cautious Guidance Due To Macro Uncertainty: Dolat Capital

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