Despite the global push for decarbonization, Gulf Oil expects EV penetration to reach at max 18-20% by FY28E which would keep supporting lubricants demand. Further, the large population, lower per capita consumption (8ltr in China versus 2.5ltr in India), infrastructure development, and government support are expected to keep the demand strong.
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Systematix Report
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd. is well-positioned to strengthen its market presence (with Core/Adblue market share 6%-8%%/20% in India) and drive sustained profitability (Ebitda/PAT to grow 13%/15.3% CAGR during FY24-27E).
Core Lubricant/AdBlue volume is expected to grow 7%/11.1% CAGR during FY24-27E.
The stock is trading very attractive at a PER of 13.5 times/11.9x on FY26E/FY27E with return on equity/return on capital employed of 25%+ and dividend yield of nearly 4%, we maintain Buy with PER of 18 times and target price of Rs 1,731.
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