PNGRB has announced a new transmission tariff of Rs 65.7/MMBtu, effective January 2026, marking a 12% increase from the current Rs 58.6/MMBtu. While this hike offers some relief, it falls short of GAIL’s proposed Rs 78/MMBtu and the street’s expectation of a 20% rise.
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ICICI Securities Report
We have revised down earnings per share estimates for FY27/28E by 2.5/4.8%, respectively, to factor in the lower tariffs. We reduce target price to Rs 195 (from Rs 215) to factor in the same and also lower DCF assumptions on transmission segment, coupled with lower investment value for other listed holdings.
Resultant of only 11% upside from current market price, we downgrade GAIL to Add (from Buy).
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