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Motilal Oswal Report
Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board, in its tariff order dated March 22, 2023, has approved a levelized tariff of Rs 58.6/metric million British thermal unit for GAIL India Ltd.’s integrated natural gas pipeline, effective April 01, 2023. To give a perspective, GAIL had proposed an integrated tariff of Rs 68/mmBtu versus ~Rs 43/mmBtu realized during nine months-FY23.
As a result of the tariff hike, we increase our Ebitda estimate (excluding other income) for FY24 to Rs 134 billion from Rs 116 billion previously. Similarly, we raise our FY24 earnings per share estimate by 16% to Rs 14.4 from Rs 12.4 previously.
Liquefied natural gas prices have plummeted to ~$12/mmBtu from the peak of $54/mmBtu. This correction, combined with the recent ramp-up of PATA, should improve the petrochem segment’s performance.
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