Deepak Nitrite is in the process of commissioning a few large projects that would help it see revenue/Ebitda/PAT CAGRs of 15%/21%/22% over FY25–27E; and FY28 onwards, growth is expected to leapfrog with its foray into PC. The next three years would be marked by a jump in capex investment – of over INR 100bn and likely stressed FCF; leverage may rise to Rs 65 billion at peak (from net cash). Reported return ratios are also likely to optically remain depressed at 14% in FY27; however, underlying RoCE may remain healthy.
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HDFC Securities Institutional Equities
We initiate coverage on Deepak Nitrite Ltd. with an Add rating, and a target price of Rs 2,120, valuing it at 30x FY27E PE. While Deepak Nitrite generates strong operating cashflow, it has embarked on large capex into import substitution products – to be the crux of its sustained value creation in the medium term. Despite Deepak Nitrite’s large portfolio of bulk chemicals, we assign a higher multiple given its:
prowess in executing large projects and achieving lowest-cost manufacturing efficiency while capturing dominant market share; and
ability to identify good import substitution opportunities, and cater to the swiftly growing Indian market.
We expect Deepak Nitrite’s revenue/Ebitda/PAT to grow at CAGR of 15%/21%/22% over FY25–27E; FY28 onwards, the financials will likely leapfrog with Deepak Nitrite’s foray into polycarbonate-integrated facility.
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