Pahalgam Terror Attack: How Indus Water Treaty Suspension Will Impact Pakistan

India suspended the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan on April 23, a day after 26 people were killed by terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam. The decision was taken during a Cabinet Committee on Security meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said, “The Indus Water Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.”

The move was one of five stern decisions taken by the CCS in response to the Pahalgam attack.

Signed on Sept. 19, 1960, the Indus Water Treaty is an agreement between India and Pakistan to regulate the sharing of water from the Indus River System. Brokered by the World Bank, the treaty was the result of nearly nine years of negotiation and diplomatic efforts. It continued to be a vital framework for managing shared water resources.

The agreement was signed by India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, and then Pakistan President, Ayub Khan. The treaty sought to ensure peaceful cooperation over the use of the Indus River system, which flows through both countries.

Under the terms of the Indus Water Treaty, India is allocated control over the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. Similarly, Pakistan has rights to the waters of the western rivers, which include the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. This arrangement divides the water resources, with Pakistan receiving about 70% and India about 30% of the river system’s total flow.

This arrangement has allowed both nations to access vital water resources for agriculture, drinking and industry, ensuring the essential water needs of their populations are met.

Despite several conflicts, including wars between the two nations, the treaty has so far remained intact. Now, the suspension of the treaty by India is a significant shift, and it marks the first time either nation has moved to halt the agreement since its inception.

The roots of the treaty lie in the partition of British India in 1947. The Indus River system, which flows through both India and Pakistan, became a point of contention between the two newly formed countries. The situation escalated in 1948, when India temporarily halted water flow to Pakistan, triggering a dispute that led to Pakistan raising the issue with the United Nations.

The UN recommended the involvement of a neutral third party, prompting the World Bank to intervene and facilitate the negotiations. After years of talks, the Indus Water Treaty was signed in 1960, ensuring a peaceful and cooperative resolution for the distribution of the water resources.

The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty will have serious consequences for Pakistan, especially in its agricultural sector, which heavily depends on the waters of the Indus River and its tributaries.

According to various reports, Pakistan relies on the Indus River system for nearly 80% of its total water supply, and the western rivers, including Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus, are vital for irrigation, drinking water and industrial use. These rivers are essential for the country’s agricultural productivity, particularly in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh, which are known as the breadbaskets of Pakistan.

With the agricultural sector contributing around 23% to Pakistan's GDP and providing livelihoods for about 68% of the rural population, any disruption in water supply would have a far-reaching impact, stated reports. Reduced water flow would lead to lower crop yields, which could result in food shortages and economic instability, especially in rural communities dependent on farming.

Moreover, Pakistan faces significant water management challenges, including depleting groundwater resources, salinisation of agricultural lands and limited water storage infrastructure. The country’s major reservoirs, like Mangla and Tarbela dams, have a combined storage capacity of only about 14.4 million acre-feet (MAF), which is only 10% of the annual water share Pakistan receives under the treaty. With the suspension of the treaty, these vulnerabilities are likely to worsen, leaving Pakistan with fewer options for managing its water needs.

The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty marks a turning point in the relationship between India and Pakistan. While the treaty has been a model of cooperation for many decades, this development is set to exacerbate already existing tensions.

India’s decision to suspend the treaty is a direct response to Pakistan’s ongoing support for cross-border terrorism, which has long been a source of contention.

For Pakistan, the consequences of this suspension could be severe, with major impacts on agriculture, food security and overall economic stability.