Stock Of The Day: Vodafone Idea Tops Rs 10 For First Time Since October On AGR Waiver Hopes

Shares of Vodafone Idea Ltd. topped the psychologically crucial Rs 10-level on Monday — first time since Oct. 4 last year — on reports that the government is considering to waive off Adjusted Gross Revenue dues.

The stock has risen nearly 30% in the last 14 sessions in 2025 after falling 36% in the last 12 months. The momentum change to the upside was triggered by the engulfing daily candle on Jan. 14.

Despite the jump in shares today, the stock is trading below the long-term sentiment gauge — the 200-day moving average. The scrip, however, currently is above the 14-day simple moving average and the 21-day exponential moving average.

Currently, resistance for the stock is at the Rs 11-mark. A breakout above that could take the stock towards Citi Research's target of Rs 13 per share. On the downside, the Rs 9.75 range will act as support for the stock.

The stock rose as much as 14.93% to Rs 11.47 per share on Thursday, compared to the 0.42% rise in Nifty 50. The relative strength index was at 77, indicating the stock is overbought.

Four out of the 22 analysts tracking the company have a 'buy' rating on the stock, five suggest a 'hold' and 13 have a 'sell', according to Bloomberg data. The average of the 12-month analysts' price target implies a potential downside of 20%.

Amid reports suggesting that the government might waive a substantial portion of AGR dues for Vodafone Idea Ltd. and Bharti Airtel Ltd., Citi expects this move to boost the stock prospects of both telecom companies. The brokerage further states that this relief may be a question of "when, not if".

The move, likely to be announced in the Union Budget on February 1, could be a significant game-changer, especially for Vodafone Idea, which has struggled with its AGR liabilities.

The government is reportedly considering waiving 50% of the interest and 100% of the penalties associated with AGR dues, while the principal amount remains intact.

For Vodafone Idea, this could mean a potential relief of Rs 52,000 crore, reducing about 75% of its outstanding AGR liability and roughly 25% of its total debt. This could result in a potential upside of Rs 7 per share for Vodafone Idea's equity.

Vi is rated as 'high risk' due to its over-leveraged balance sheet, with continued government support critical, especially with rising government debt repayments due from October 2025, when the current moratorium ends.