Pharma Faces Weak First Half, Recovery Seen Later As Domestic Demand Holds, Say Brokerages — Check Stock Picks

India’s pharmaceutical sector is heading into a split-screen 2026, with brokerage commentary pointing to a year marked by regulatory overhangs, eroding high-margin exclusivities, and a stronger second half driven by domestic demand and new launches.

Jefferies describes 2026 as “a tale of two halves” for pharma. The first half is expected to be subdued, particularly for companies riding on the high-margin Revlimid generic opportunity, where competition is set to intensify from February. Dr. Reddy’s is seen as the most exposed, followed by Zydus and Cipla, while Sun Pharma remains the least affected because of lower dependence on such products. However, Jefferies expects these players to return to double-digit earnings growth in the second half, with US price erosion staying in the mid-single-digit range.

While US-specific earnings cool off, domestic pharma is expected to stay steady. Market growth is projected at high single digits, largely price-led amid weak volumes. One big swing factor lies in India’s impending GLP-1 (semaglutide) launches from March–April, which could set off intense competitive action. Consolidation is likely to continue, with Mankind emerging as Jefferies’ preferred domestic pick.

Across FY26–28, Jefferies forecasts double-digit revenue growth for the sector, led by Biocon (14%), boosted by upcoming launches. Ajanta Pharma and Mankind are expected to clock 12% growth, while Sun Pharma, Torrent, JB Pharma and Emcure are each seen expanding at around 11%.

Zydus and Alkem are pegged at 10% CAGR, whereas names losing high-margin exclusivity in the US — Cipla at 8.5%, and Lupin and Dr. Reddy’s around 6% — are expected to post mid- to high-single-digit growth. A key uncertainty for the sector is the outcome of the US Section 232 investigation on pharma tariffs, with a decision expected in the first quarter.

Running parallel to the earnings narrative is a clear theme of regulatory tightening. Morgan Stanley highlights a string of US FDA Form 483 observations across large companies, adding a layer of compliance risk.

Cipla’s partner Pharmathen International received nine observations at its Rodopi, Greece sterile facility, with the FDA flagging systemic cGMP issues — ranging from inadequacies in aseptic processes and environmental control to data integrity lapses. While operations continue, Morgan Stanley warns of potential implications for Cipla’s Lanreotide franchise in the US, maintaining an Underweight stance.

Sun Pharma’s Baska sterile plant also attracted a Form 483, with three observations that have now been classified as OAI. While the regulatory risk around injectables rises, Sun’s strategic shift away from US generics — now down to 14% of revenue versus 60% in FY14 — is expected to cushion the blow. Morgan Stanley remains Overweight, citing its pivot towards specialty and innovative products, and pegs a base case price target of Rs 2,026.

Meanwhile, Dr. Reddy’s received five observations at its Srikakulam site, mostly around quality systems, validation and OOS investigations rather than sterile operations. The brokerage calls the risk manageable, though remediation work lies ahead. A Complete Response Letter for Denosumab could push approval by 3–6 months, even as catalysts such as GLP-1 approval in Canada and potential biosimilar launches (Denosumab, Abatacept) remain in the pipeline.