Adani Energy Solutions’ Transmission Ebitda To Double In Three Years, Says Elara, Initiating ‘Buy’ Rating

Elara Capital has initiated coverage on Adani Energy Solutions with a "buy" rating, highlighting the company’s strong growth prospects in its transmission, distribution, and smart meters businesses. The brokerage has set a target price of Rs 930 for the stock.

Adani Energy Solutions is expected to see its transmission Ebitda double to Rs 7,600 crore by FY27, driven by India’s ambitious renewable energy targets. AESL currently has a project pipeline worth Rs 54,800 crore, with additional projects worth Rs 38,800 crore secured following its QIP in FY25.

The Government of India’s goal to achieve 500GW of renewable energy (RE) capacity needs a robust transmission network for green power evacuation, driving a surge in bidding activity for transmission projects. Industry estimates a near-term bidding value at Rs 84,000 crore, with AESL likely to secure a 20-25% market share, said Elara Capital

In the distribution sector, demand in the Mundra SEZ is projected to surge from 50MW to 5GW, increasing the regulated asset base to Rs 1,500-2,000 crore. The Mumbai operations are set to receive annual capital expenditure of Rs 1,200-1,500 crore, boosting regulated equity to Rs 6,000 crore by FY27.

AESL also leads the smart meters market with a 17% share, maintaining an impressive Ebitda margin of 85%. The company’s robust growth outlook and strategic positioning in key sectors underpin Elara Capital’s positive rating.

AESL operates two distribution companies, one at Mumbai and the other at Mundra.