US Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Shrinks To Smallest Since 2020

The US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in September to the smallest since mid-2020 as exports surged.

The goods and services trade gap shrank nearly 11% from the prior month to $52.8 billion, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a $63.1 billion deficit.

The value of US exports rose 3% to the second-highest level on record, fueled by non-monetary gold and pharmaceutical preparations. Imports increased a more modest 0.6%. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

Large monthly swings in trade this year related to US implementation of tariffs have introduced similar volatility in the government’s measure of economic activity — gross domestic product. The September trade figures will help economists fine tune their estimates for third-quarter GDP.

Prior to the monthly report, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast saw net exports contributing 0.86 percentage point to third-quarter growth.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $79 billion in September, the smallest in nearly five years. Exports of consumer goods, after adjusting for price changes, were the largest on record.

The data also showed a sizable pickup in inbound shipments of pharmaceuticals. Imports of capital equipment and autos fell, as did imports of most consumer goods, including cell phones, appliances, toys and furniture.

Meanwhile, a record value of nonmonetary gold was exported in September, largely reversing a recent surge in inbound shipments tied to tariff concerns. A month earlier, gold imports slumped after a massive increase in tariffs on Switzerland, a large exporter of the precious metal.