India-US Trade Deal: Where Talks Stand, What's Holding Them Back — Here's What We Know So Far

India is in no rush to sign a trade deal with the United States, especially not one that risks its core economic interests, as per the Commerce Industry. As negotiations inch forward, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has made it clear that New Delhi will not be pressured by arbitrary deadlines or external expectations.

The agreement to come will follow months of negotiations, catalysed by US President Donald Trump's historic tariffs announced on April 2. India was one of the countries majorly hit by Trump's protectionist move, with steep levies worth 27% imposed on the country.

Trump had since suspended its enforcement for 90 days to allow for negotiations. This suspension period set a deadline of July 9 for both countries to finalise an interim trade agreement to avoid the imposition of these higher tariffs.

The actual negotiation rounds, involving the Indian trade delegation led by chief negotiator Rajesh Agrawal, took place from June 26 to July 2 in Washington DC. 

"If it's not a win-win, it's not happening," Goyal said on Friday, pushing back against Trump's deadline for concluding the long-pending interim deal.

Sources tell NDTV Profit that the July 9 deadline is unlikely to be met. The scope of the deal has already been narrowed: it will now likely cover only goods, with broader exemptions, such as on steel, aluminium and automobile components, off the table for now.

India continues to insist on "sustained preference" for its labour-intensive sectors, including leather, footwear and textiles. A major ask is the reduction of the 26% tariff that Indian textile exports currently face in the US. Bringing that down to even 10% could be transformative for firms like Welspun Living and Trident, which count the US as a key market.

Even as it negotiates bilaterally, India has not hesitated to turn to multilateral forums. It has issued two notices at the World Trade Organisation reserving the right to retaliate against US safeguard duties on auto parts, steel and aluminium.

India has proposed retaliatory tariffs that could impact $2.89 billion worth of US imports annually. The proposed duties worth about $723.75 million would kick in 30 days after formal notification, though no such move has been made yet.

On the Indian side, the core team includes:

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi

• Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal

• Rajesh Agrawal, Special Secretary and Commerce Secretary Designate – India's chief negotiator

Agrawal, a 1993-batch IAS officer from the Manipur cadre, has emerged as a key face in India’s trade diplomacy. He has previously helmed the ASEAN FTA review and led trade talks with Australia and Peru. His background overseeing agricultural exports adds weight, especially as food and farm products remain a sticking point in the US talks.

On the American side:

• President Donald Trump

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick

• Jamieson Greer, United States Trade Representative

• Brendan Lynch, Assistant USTR for South and Central Asia – Chief US negotiator

Lynch is no stranger to India policy, having served as Deputy Assistant USTR and coordinated initiatives under the US-India Trade Policy Forum. He currently handles trade with 15 countries across South Asia and helps shape the US position at regional forums like TIFA.