Sky Detour: Pakistan Airspace Closure Forces Longer Routes, Higher Fares

Airlines will have to reschedule all west-bound flights, especially those taking off from north India, with Pakistan shutting its airspace for Indian carriers on Thursday, two days after a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam. As a result, airlines’ costs are bound to rise due to extended routes, potentially translating into higher airfares for passengers.

Both Air India and IndiGo have issued advisories warning passengers of service disruptions on international routes due to changes in flight paths, which may result in longer alternative routes. Air India said some flights to North America, the UK, Europe, and Middle East might be particularly affected.

A SpiceJet spokesperson said that its flights to the UAE from North India will now operate via alternative routes. As a result, these flights will carry more fuel to account for the longer flying time. However, the spokesperson clarified that there won't be any significant impact on flight schedules.

The last time Pakistan closed its airspace for nearly five months' period — in 2019, following the Balakot airstrikes in retaliation to the Pulwama terror attack— Indian carriers lost around Rs 600 crore, then Civil Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri had told the Rajya Sabha. Air India alone incurred losses of Rs 491 crore or a loss of roughly Rs 4 crore daily on its Europe, US flights, as it operated more west-bound international flights than other airlines. Meanwhile, SpiceJet, IndiGo, and GoAir lost about Rs 31 crore, Rs 25 crore, and Rs 2 crore, respectively, during that period.

"It is still too early to assess the real financial impact as we don't know for how long the airspace will be closed, but operational expenses will definitely rise as airlines will have to deploy more pilots and crew, burn additional fuel due to longer routes," said an airline executive on condition of anonymity. Fuel accounts for roughly 25-30% of airline's expenses.

The duration of some of the European flights operated from north India will increase by about 2.5 hours, a senior pilot told NDTV Profit. Flights to the US may require a refueling stop in Europe, adding about four hours to the journey. In 2019, Air India’s flights from Delhi to both Chicago and New York JFK were routed via Vienna, so that the plane can be refueled there.

Another executive said that fares to destinations like Europe and the US could rise by 20-25% in the near-term due to Pakistan’s retaliatory action.

Air India now operates about 1,188 international flights weekly—a 57% increase since April 2019, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.

India-Europe flights, many passing through Pakistan, have risen 80% to 242 weekly, while India-North America flights, also using Pakistani airspace, have more than doubled to 144. IndiGo operates 1,904 international flights per week, nearly 2.5 times more than the number it operated in April 2019.

Pakistan airspace is a crucial airspace in the region and is vastly used by the Indian airlines. Airlines from airports in north India, including Delhi, Amritsar, Jaipur, Lucknow and Varanasi will now likely have to take a detour to Gujarat or Maharashtra and then turn right for Europe, North America or West Asia. They may also re-route via Oman, UAE and Iran to enter Europe. Mumbai air traffic control, meanwhile, is preparing for a sharp spike in traffic volumes, as they will now have to manage over 100 additional rerouted international flights per day.

Additionally, as foreign airlines are still permitted to overfly Pakistan, they may gain a cost advantage over Indian airlines on affected routes.