Lilly Joins $1 Trillion Club In Weight-Loss Drug Fueled Climb

The world’s largest drugmaker, Eli Lilly & Co., just notched another milestone: it’s the first health-care company to cross the $1 trillion threshold as investors bet big on the drugmaker’s weight-loss medicines. 

Shares of Lilly rose as much as 1.7% on Friday, pushing its market value to about $1 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. With the advance, Lilly has cemented its position as the first pharmaceutical company and the second US firm outside of the technology industry to achieve the milestone.

It’s the latest landmark for Lilly which was catapulted into the top spot as the world's largest health-care company by market capitalisation in 2023. The advance has been fueled by Wall Street’s enthusiasm for the company’s class of drugs dubbed — GLP-1s — used to treat obesity and diabetes, along with its next generation weight-loss pill in the market projected to reach $95 billion by 2030.

“At a trillion, it’s two times as big as the second biggest company in health care,” said Jared Holz, a strategist at Mizuho Securities USA LLC. “That’s an incredible situation for them.”

Threats of sky-high tariffs, saber-rattling on prescription drug costs and setbacks for its obesity medicine made for a turbulent year. In May, Lilly shares fell after drug benefit manager CVS Health Corp. dropped Zepbound from its list of preferred drugs and replaced it with Novo Nordisk A/S’s Wegovy. In recent months, the stock regained its footing as a better-than-expected third-quarter earnings report, raised outlook and a deal with the Trump administration, helped propel it to new heights.  

The stock has climbed 37% so far this year after a 32% rally in 2024. And investors are doubling down on bets that the drugmaker will maintain its position as one of the top beneficiaries of the race to treat the obesity epidemic, on the strength of its blockbuster weight-loss franchise.

The booming demand for drugs that help people shed unwanted pounds as well as Lilly’s efforts to boost production and build out its pipeline have helped the Indianapolis-based firm leapfrog its Danish rival in the obesity market. In May, a head-tohead comparison showed Lilly’s Zepbound helped people trim more belly fat than Novo’s Wegovy. Lilly’s experimental obesity pill also helped patients shed weight and control blood sugar about as well as Ozempic in a separate trial. And while Zepbound sales have topped Wall Street’s expectations so far this year, Novo has had to trim its annual forecast four times amid lagging sales. 

In its most recent quarterly results, the US drugmaker said that its GLP-1 drugs now account for almost 58% of that market, which includes Novo’s Ozempic and Wegovy.

“When you look at what they’ve done side by side against Novo, which had the early lead in obesity, to come in and take basically two thirds of new market share within two years is kind of incredible,” Holz added. “In terms of their execution, it’s been consistently good.”

Now, Wall Street is turning its attention to the space’s next phase — an easy-to-swallow pill that’s less expensive to make. 

A US Food and Drug Administration decision on whether to approve Lilly’s oral obesity medication is expected in early 2026 and the firm has bulked up supply ahead of a potential launch. Citi’s Geoff Meacham, who estimates annual sales for the pill will peak at more than $40 billion, assigned Lilly a $1,500 price target last week — the highest on Wall Street. 

“Lilly’s domination of the category should accelerate,” the analyst wrote. His price target suggests the company’s market value would top $1.4 trillion over the next 12 months. 

Meanwhile, a slew of developers are racing to replicate the drugmaker’s success. To stay in the lead, Lilly is running studies of tirzepatide — the chemical compound in Zepbound — in related health conditions like liver disease, heart failure and immunological diseases. The company is also examining its experimental obesity pill, orforglipron, in hypertension and sleep apnea. 

Mizuho’s Holz sees further upside for Lilly shares if the company continues to find growth drivers, whether in its obesity franchise or its Alzheimer’s program.

“Is it possible that in three, four, five years, this is a $2 trillion company? Sure, very possible.” Holz said.