Gold, Silver May Extend Rally With US Jobs Data, Festive Demand In Focus: Analysts

Gold and silver prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory this week, but may see late profit-booking amid the release of a series of crucial global economic indicators, analysts said.

On the economic front, traders will closely monitor the manufacturing/ services PMI data from across regions and the US non-farm payrolls/ employment data along with consumer confidence for the month of September and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, they added.

'We expect the current positive momentum in both bullions to continue, however, some profit-booking cannot be ruled out towards the end of the week. Gold prices continued their positive momentum and closed the week higher by more than 3% as better-than-expected economic numbers released from the US has slightly pushed back expectations of an interest rate cut,' said Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for December delivery soared by Rs 4,188 or 3.77% during the week to close at Rs 1,14,891 per 10 grams on Friday. The contract touched an all-time high of Rs 1,15,139 per 10 grams on Tuesday.

Gold has now posted twelve consecutive weekly gains since June 27, when MCX prices stood at Rs 95,587 per 10 grams.

'The rally is being driven by a potent mix of US macroeconomic signals, global reserve realignments, and domestic festive demand,' said Pankaj Singh, Investment Manager on Smallcase and Founder & Principal Researcher of SmartWealth.ai.

Singh pointed out that US inflation data matched forecasts, while income and spending figures confirmed the resilience of the American economy. 'Market participants remain convinced that the Federal Reserve is on track for two rate cuts by year-end, with October easing odds remaining very high. Meanwhile, lower US Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions have amplified gold's safe-haven appeal,' he said.

Central banks' tilt towards gold has also underpinned demand. Citing IMF data, Singh said the dollar's share in global reserves has fallen from 71% in 1999 to 58% in 2024, while gold's share rose to 24% in the first quarter of 2025, the highest in three decades.

'The market outlook remains slightly bullish. With festive demand building ahead of Diwali and no major US data until Friday's jobs report, gold has every reason to hold its ground,' he added.

Echoing similar sentiment, Jyoti Prakash, Managing Partner, Equity and PMS at AlphaaMoney said, 'Predicting whether the price of gold will rise or fall in the coming week is like a toss of a coin. However, this asset class is in momentum, registering record highs on Friday. Therefore, the trend is upwards.' He attributed the surge to solid investor interest in gold ETFs, which have drawn $50 billion in inflows so far in 2025, the highest since 2020. 'A weaker US dollar is also acting as a tailwind for gold,' Prakash said. On Saturday, the dollar index fell 0.38% to close at 98.18 against major peers.

In global trade, gold futures gained $103.2 or 2.78%, ending at $3,809 per ounce after hitting a record $3,824.60 per ounce during the week.

NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity Desk & CRM at Ventura, said the gold futures have rallied from $3,706 to $3,809 per ounce giving an upside of 2.78% has hammered the narratives that the yellow metal is 'overbought, overcrowded, overdone.' 'Signals of tighter monetary policy or profit-booking could trigger a correction, sovereign wealth funds, long-horizon investors and central banks are likely to sustain demand,' Ramaswamy said.

He added that the rally to $4,000 per ounce for gold in the overseas markets is on the cards sooner than expected.

Silver, meanwhile, outshone gold with a sharp surge. On the MCX, silver futures for December delivery gained Rs 12,051 or 9.28% last week to close at Rs 1,41,889 per kilogram after hitting a record high of Rs 1,42,189 per kg.

'Silver was the biggest outperformer in the commodities basket with a rally of 8.5-9% on a weekly basis. The metal was supported by a sharp up move in copper and other base metal as well as continued positive momentum in gold,' Pranav Mer of JM Financial Services said.

Silver climbed 8.61% during the week to settle at $46.65 per ounce.

Mer noted that silver has risen more than 60% so far this year compared with gold's 45% gain, pulling down the gold-to-silver ratio to 81.64 at Friday's close. He sees the upside potential for the white metal to test Rs 1,50,000-1,70,000 per kilogram in the near term, though he cautioned against volatility driven by profit-taking and market developments.

Analysts said market attention this week will be on global manufacturing and services PMI data, US employment numbers, and consumer confidence, which may provide fresh cues for bullion direction.