Ukraine is set to ramp up natural gas imports next season, with its own production capacity hit by Russia's drones and missiles, potentially adding more pressure to an already tight European market.
The government estimates it will need about 3.5 billion cubic meters of imports to meet domestic demand next heating season, an energy official familiar with the calculations said. The actual volumes may deviate upwards or downwards depending on circumstances, the person said, asking not to be identified because the information wasn't public yet.
The nation's buying plans come at a volatile time for the gas market. The competition for the fuel is high and prices remain elevated with Europe also looking to replenish its dwindling inventories soon.
“We are waiting for a final approval of the balance, which will define the projected volume of consumption, extraction and imports of gas,” Roman Chumak, acting chief executive officer of the state-run energy company, Naftogaz Ukrainy, said in a text message. The Energy Ministry, which is coordinating the process, did not immediately comment.
Ukraine, traditionally a large importer of natural gas, reduced purchases of foreign fuel since 2022, as Russia's full-scale invasion cut domestic consumption.
The damage inflicted to its gas infrastructure has reduced the nation's extraction capacity and a frigid winter has boosted heating demand, sending stockpiles to worrying low levels, forcing Naftogaz to buy natural gas from the European Union.
In February alone, 560 million cubic meters of gas was imported, according to data from Ukraine's gas transmission system operator. That compares to approximately 700 million cubic meters purchased through the entire heating season in 2023, according to estimates from Denys Sakva, an energy analyst with Kyiv-based investment company Dragon Capital.
The escalating standoff between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US President Donald Trump could leave Kyiv ever more vulnerable to Russian attacks, further exacerbating Ukraine's concerns about its supplies of the fuel.
As the EU mulls helping finance Slovakia and Hungary to store non-Russian natural gas in Ukraine's storage space next winter, Kyiv is also relying on that arrangement protecting its own supplies from further Russian attacks.
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