- Rising gas prices since 1978 correlate with an average loss of 32 House seats for incumbents
- When fuel prices fall, the incumbent party loses an average of just six House seats in midterms
- Gas prices impact voter perceptions of inflation and the ruling party's economic performance
A rise in gas prices may actually have more impact than just a costlier household budget in the United States. It could also carry a political cost for the ruling party, with nearly five decades of analysed election data showing a striking link between rising fuel costs and losses in the House of Representatives during Midterm polls. In midterm cycles since 1978,when gasoline prices increased between January of the previous year and October of the election year, the incumbent party lost an average of 32 seats in the House of Representatives, according to Morgan Stanley. When fuel prices declined over the same period, the average loss was just six seats.
This data is an interesting indicator ahead of the US midterm elections today, although, it does not prove or decide that higher fuel costs alone caused the losses.
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A separate comparison, by Politico, puts the average House seat loss for the president's party in midterms since 1978 at 21 seats. In election cycles when gas prices rose, that figure increased to 32 seats.
Gas prices have a particularly in-the-face impact on consumers because drivers encounter them regularly. Repeated visits to petrol stations and higher bills can shape how voters perceive inflation and assess the ruling government's economic performance.
Bill Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told CBS that gas prices do influence voting behaviour. According to Galston, higher fuel costs can lower voters' assessment of the president's performance. Since the president is not on the ballot in midterms, candidates from the president's party in Congress can face the consequences.
The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll, released in June found that 66% of the respondents said petrol prices were likely to influence their vote. The proportion was 81% among Democrats, 56% among Independents and 53% among Republicans. The poll also found that 49% of respondents blamed wars or conflicts affecting global oil markets for higher fuel prices. Galston told CBS that lower-income households, people living paycheck to paycheck and those who regularly drive long distances are more likely to factor fuel costs into their voting decisions. The impact, however, is not uniform across electorates, and according to Brookings data cited by The Center Square, people living in Republican-represented congressional districts drive about 26% more miles per capita than those in Democratic-represented districts.
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