The world has seen wars before — long ones, cold ones, proxy ones. But every so often, a conflict comes along that feels more like a system glitch. This is one of those moments. Missiles are flying across the Middle East, oil tankers are hesitating at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, and global markets are swinging on every headline.
In a wide-ranging conversation with NDTV, global affairs commentator Fareed Zakaria frames the ongoing US-Iran conflict as something far more unpredictable than traditional wars. At its core, he argues, lies what he calls an “escalation trap” — a cycle purely driven by the instincts and decisions of Donald Trump. Unlike past conflicts shaped by structural forces, Zakaria suggests this one is unusually personalised. “Prestige and perception” are driving escalation, with neither side willing to step back for fear of appearing weak.
Inside Iran: A Shift Toward Military Control
Zakaria highlights a critical internal shift within Iran. Unlike Venezuela-style regimes, Iran's power structure has historically been distributed across clerical, military, and elected institutions. But under sustained external attacks, that balance appears to be collapsing.
According to Zakaria, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has effectively taken control in what he describes as a 'soft coup.' The crisis has also triggered a wave of defensive nationalism, consolidating hardline power. “When a country is under attack, the men with guns take charge,” he notes.
Meanwhile, the conflict is exposing the economics of modern warfare. Iran and its proxies are deploying low-cost drones—sometimes as cheap as $15,000—forcing the US to respond with interceptors worth millions. This imbalance, Zakaria argues, is not just tactical but financially unsustainable for advanced militaries.
On Benjamin Netanyahu's endgame, Zakaria offers a stark assessment: regime change may not be the goal. Instead, Israel appears focused on dismantling Iran's military-industrial base — even if it leaves behind instability.
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Hormuz: The World's Most Fragile Chokepoint
A key flashpoint remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil flows. Zakaria warns that Iran doesn't need a full blockade to disrupt global markets. By simply raising risk—through drones or naval mines—it can make shipping prohibitively expensive. “If insurers pull back, traffic stops,” he explains. The implications are already visible, with oil prices surging sharply and global supply chains under strain.
For India, the crisis presents a diplomatic balancing act. Zakaria notes that New Delhi's initial tilt toward Israel and tacit alignment with Washington may have cost it strategic space with Tehran—complicating efforts to protect energy and shipping interests. At the same time, China is quietly capitalising. As the US gets drawn deeper into the Middle East, Beijing is doubling down on long-term priorities—from AI to electric vehicles—turning distraction into advantage.
Perhaps Zakaria's most sobering warning is about the broader global order. Unilateral military actions without multilateral backing, he argues, risk eroding the very rules that have governed international relations for decades. “This isn't just a war,” Zakaria suggests. “It's a stress test of the entire system.”
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Watch the full interview here:
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