OPEC+ Sticks With Plan To Keep Oil Flow Steady Amid Turmoil

OPEC+ stuck with plans to pause supply increases in the first quarter at a meeting on Sunday, as global markets face a surplus and the group awaits clarity on whether the shock US capture of Venezuela leader Nicolas Maduro will impact supplies.

Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will maintain collective production levels through the end of March. As has been the case with recent online gatherings, this meeting was brief, lasting under 10 minutes.

There was no discussion of Venezuela on the call and several delegates said it would have been premature to adjust supply in response to Maduro’s capture. Even so, the outlook for Venezuelan output may become an important question for the group in the months ahead. 

Analysts and traders say it could easily take years for Venezuela’s critical infrastructure to be fully repaired and for oil to freely flow out of the country, which currently accounts for less than 1% of global supplies even though it has the world’s largest reserves.  

Currently, Venezuela produces around 800,000 barrels of oil a day, according to Kpler, which tracks shipping data. Production could rise by about 150,000 barrels a day within a few months if sanctions are lifted, but getting back to 2 million barrels a day or higher would require “massive reforms” and large investments from international oil companies, according to Matt Smith, Americas lead oil analyst at Kpler. 

Crude futures fell 18% last year in their biggest annual drop since the 2020 pandemic, as supplies swelled from OPEC+ members and key producers elsewhere, while forecasters are predicting a significant and growing glut in 2026. 

Last April, Riyadh and its partners stunned crude traders by rapidly restarting production idled since 2023 despite signs that world markets were comfortably supplied. Several delegates said the move was intended to claw back market share ceded in recent years to rivals like American shale drillers. 

Before the supply halt, OPEC+ had formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of 3.85 million barrels a day of output halted since 2023, leaving about 1.2 million barrels-a-day of these tranches left to restart. However, the actual volumes added have been smaller than advertised as some countries physically struggle to increase, and others atone for earlier overproduction.