La Nina May Return In September But Temperatures To Stay Above Normal, Says UN Weather Agency
Despite the temporary cooling influence of La Nina, global temperatures are still expected to remain above average for much of the world.
La Nina may return to impact weather and climate patterns from September onwards, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has said in a latest update.
Despite the temporary cooling influence of La Nina, global temperatures are still expected to remain above average for much of the world, it said.
La Nina and El Nino are opposite phases of a Pacific Ocean climate cycle.
El Nino refers to the periodic warming of ocean waters near Peru, often weakening India's monsoon and making winters warmer. La Nina cools those waters, usually strengthening India's monsoon and bringing colder, harsher winters.
WMO says that naturally occurring climate events such as La Nina and El Nino are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is raising global temperatures, intensifying extreme weather and altering seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
Neutral conditions (neither El Nino nor La Nina) have persisted since March 2025, with sea surface temperature anomalies remaining near average across the equatorial Pacific. These conditions may gradually give way to La Nina from September, it said.
According to forecasts from WMO's Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction, there is a 55 per cent chance of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific cooling to La Nina levels and a 45 per cent chance of them remaining at ENSO-neutral levels during the September-November 2025 period.
For October-December 2025, the probability of La Nina rises to about 60 per cent, while the likelihood of El Nino remains low.
"Seasonal forecasts for El Nino and La Nina and their associated impacts on our weather are an important climate intelligence tool. They translate into millions of dollars of economic savings for key sectors like agriculture, energy, health and transport and have saved thousands of lives when used to guide preparedness and response actions," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said.
While the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of global climate patterns, it is not the only factor influencing Earth's climate.
WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Updates also account for other variability patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole.
For September to November, the latest update projects above-normal temperatures in much of the Northern Hemisphere and large parts of the Southern Hemisphere. Rainfall patterns resemble those typically seen during a moderate La Nina.
