Israel's Arab-led parties are projected to win a record 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset.
That puts them in a position to decide whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stays in power, even though the opposition parties that would gain most from their support have pledged not to rely on them.
Partial results from the Central Elections Committee, with 85.6% of ballot boxes counted, gave Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats and the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party 48.
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The Joint List and Ra'am are projected to take 19 between them, up from a combined 10 in the outgoing Knesset and above the previous record of 15 in 2020. A government needs 61 seats.
Why Do The Arab Parties Matter?
Together, the Zionist opposition and the Arab parties would hold 67 seats, reflecting widespread opposition to Netanyahu's government and its far-right ministers, Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Without the Arab parties, the opposition cannot reach 61. Netanyahu, for his part, has no obvious way to expand his bloc of far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies.
What Do They Want?
The Joint List, an alliance of Hadash, Ta'al and Balad led by Yousef Jabareen, has offered to back an alternative government from outside the coalition. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, says it is willing to join an Eisenkot-led coalition if one proves viable. Ra'am was part of the 2021 government headed by Naftali Bennett.
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Both parties are prioritising Netanyahu's removal and are likely to seek commitments on organised crime, housing shortages and underinvestment in Arab communities.
What Stands In The Way?
Eisenkot, Bennett and Avigdor Liberman have pledged not to depend on Arab lawmakers. Netanyahu has long portrayed them as illegitimate partners, and after the vote he alleged election fraud and said no Zionist party should cooperate with Ra'am or the Joint List.
Democrats leader Yair Golan has urged the opposition to cooperate, noting that Netanyahu relies on non-Zionist ultra-Orthodox parties.
What Are The Options?
The opposition could reverse its pledges and form a coalition with Ra'am. It could also try a minority government with Ra'am inside and the Joint List supporting from outside. Yitzhak Rabin governed this way in 1993. Either path risks defections, as happened to the Bennett coalition in 2022.
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The alternatives are fresh elections or a unity government with Netanyahu. Both would keep him in office, at least in the short term, and could anger voters who turned out in record numbers for change.
What Next?
The Central Elections Committee has said final results will not be published until November 4.
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