China is facing a demographic turning point, with families now supporting more elderly people than children for the first time, highlighting the long-term consequences of decades of population-control policies and declining birth rates.
Official data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, released last week, show that the country's elderly dependency ratio climbed to 23% in 2025, overtaking the child dependency ratio of 22%. The figures measure the number of elderly people and children relative to the working-age population.
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China had more than 223 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for nearly 16% of its population, while the number of children aged 14 and under stood at around 213 million, according to the data cited by the BBC.
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The shift presents a growing challenge for the world's second-largest economy, as a shrinking workforce must support a larger ageing population. It could put additional pressure on pension systems, healthcare services and long-term care, while potentially weighing on consumption and economic growth.
The demographic change is closely linked to China's controversial one-child policy, introduced in 1980 and phased out at the end of 2015. The policy was designed to curb population growth, with the Chinese government estimating that it prevented around 400 million births, although that figure has been disputed.
While Beijing has since relaxed restrictions and introduced measures to encourage couples to have more children, birth rates have remained historically low. Rising living costs, urbanisation, changing gender roles and higher education levels have also contributed to the decline in fertility, the BBC reported.
The consequences are becoming increasingly visible in government spending priorities. China has expanded support for older citizens, with more than 53 million elderly people receiving senior citizen allowances and subsidies by the end of 2025, according to official figures.
The ageing population could also create opportunities in the so-called silver economy, which caters to older consumers through healthcare, financial services, leisure and other products.
However, experts caution against viewing older people solely as a financial burden. BBC reported that Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten of The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology said the shift could influence public spending, directing more resources towards pensions and healthcare rather than families and schools.
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He also warned that dependency ratios can offer an incomplete picture of ageing societies, potentially overlooking older people's economic contributions, independence and improved health.
According to BBC, Mu Zheng, a sociology lecturer at the National University of Singapore, said the demographic transition could constrain China's growth ambitions and weaken household spending power.
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