Trump's Greenland Bid Faces Long Odds In Prediction Markets
Whether Trump may acquire all or part of Greenland and, if so, by when and by what means can lead to different results, making it hard to draw comprehensive insights.
President Donald Trump has revived his long-running ambition to bring Greenland under US control, but traders putting money on the outcome are skeptical it will happen this year, while assigning higher odds to some form of acquisition before his term ends.
On Polymarket, a popular crypto-based prediction platform, traders are betting on whether Trump will bring the Arctic island under US sovereignty by the end of this year. The odds stood at 14% on Wednesday, with more than $2 million traded since late December. The market is one of Polymarket’s most popular bets in recent days.
On Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, some traders are focused on a longer-term question: whether the United States will acquire at least part of Greenland at any point during Trump’s term, which runs through 2029. That market priced the chances at 43%, though trading has been far lighter, with about $644,000 changing hands over the past year.
In prediction markets, traders buy “yes” or “no” shares tracking the outcome of real-world events, from sports games and economic forecasts to Jesus returning to Earth. The amount of buying and selling of those instruments determines the implied probability — and therefore the price — of each outcome at any point in time.
The differing odds underscore how traders are doubtful of any near-term move, while allocating a higher — if still uncertain — probability over a longer time frame. The divergence also offers a glimpse into some of the broader questions facing prediction markets as the space seeks to find its place on Wall Street. Platforms say their data can be used as indicators of market sentiment, helping investors find valuable trading signals where traditional markets or news sources might be lacking.
But the variety of questions available for speculation — like whether Trump may acquire all or part of Greenland, and if so, by when and by what means — can lead to different results, making it hard to draw comprehensive insights. Moreover, the rules used to determine a market’s outcome are sometimes open to interpretation, resulting in debates over if the right decision was reached.
On Polymarket, a market tracking whether the US would invade Venezuela this month caused significant debate in recent days, with some traders arguing that the Jan. 3 US military incursion to capture President Nicolás Maduro should have resolved the matter. Polymarket’s rules stated the market would only resolve if the US carried out a military offensive intended to establish control, which it later clarified that Trump’s “snatch-and-extract” mission didn’t constitute.
The platform’s Greenland market states that sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of Greenland from being an autonomous state within the kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance of the US. Official announcements by the US and Denmark or a consensus of media reports would resolve the market, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty hasn’t occurred yet.
Kalshi’s most popular Greenland-focused market considers the question of whether Trump may purchase at least a part of the island — rather than seize it militarily — having seen more than $2 million in trading volume since late 2024. The odds of that jumped to 40% on Wednesday, up from 16% when the US captured Maduro.
The White House said this week that it is considering several ways of achieving Trump’s goal of acquiring Greenland, escalating tensions with Denmark and other members of NATO. European leaders issued a joint statement, warning that Trump needs to respect the territorial integrity of both Greenland and Denmark.
