US Astronomer Warns Against Starlink Satellites Falling To Earth
Although Elon Musk’s Starlink has transformed worldwide internet access through its satellites, its swift growth is contributing to increasing orbital congestion.
An increasing number of Starlink satellites are re-entering Earth’s atmosphere each day, sparking alarm among researchers. Astronomers have raised concerns over a possible cascading buildup of orbital debris endangering activity in low-Earth orbit, due to the falling of satellites from Starlink’s constellation.
Data compiled by Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in the United States, indicates that on average, one to two Starlink satellites fall back through Earth’s atmosphere each day, according to a report by The Independent. This figure is expected to climb to around five daily as additional constellations from SpaceX, Amazon’s Project Kuiper and upcoming Chinese networks are scheduled to be launched over the next few years.
Over 8,000 Starlink satellites are currently orbiting the Earth, as per McDowell.
“With all constellations deployed, we expect about 30,000 low-Earth orbit satellites (Starlink, Amazon Kuiper, others) and perhaps another 20,000 satellites at 1,000 km [620 miles] from the Chinese systems. For the low-orbit satellites, we expect a 5-year replacement cycle, and that translates to five re-entries a day. It’s not clear if the Chinese will orbit-lower theirs or just accelerate us to chain-reaction Kessler syndrome,” he was quoted as saying by EarthSky.
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A typical Starlink satellite remains operational for around five to seven years, after which older models are deliberately de-orbited or may descend naturally because of technical faults or heightened solar activity.
Scientists are expressing concern that the rising accumulation of inactive satellites, spent rocket parts, and floating debris may push Earth towards what’s known as the Kessler syndrome: a chain reaction where collisions between objects create even more fragments, setting off further crashes.
Should this scenario occur, vast regions of space could become hazardous for future satellite missions and pose serious challenges for astronomical observations from the ground.
McDowell points out that the present solar maximum, the peak of the Sun’s 11-year activity cycle, is speeding up the deterioration of satellites in orbit. Powerful solar flares and coronal mass ejections cause Earth’s upper atmosphere to heat and expand. This increases drag and gradually draws satellites closer to the planet.
SpaceX’s Starlink constellation has transformed global internet access, but its swift growth is intensifying the crowding conditions in orbit. With tens of thousands more satellites projected to lift off in the coming years, space trackers caution that regulating orbital traffic and tackling debris could become one of the decade’s most pressing challenges.
