Google's Search Dominance Faces A Real Test In The Age Of Generative AI: Report
According to a new report by Bernstein, Google may be facing its most serious search challenge yet.

A growing number of investors are acknowledging a shift in digital behavior: the emergence of generative artificial intelligence or Gen AI tools like ChatGPT is beginning to reshape how users interact with search. While anecdotal evidence has long suggested a personal migration from Google to AI-driven platforms, recent data points provide stronger validation that this shift is broader and more material than previously assumed.
According to a new report by Bernstein, Google may be facing its most serious search challenge yet. For the first time in the company’s history, paid click growth has slowed to its lowest rate ever.
Compounding this, Apple devices have recorded the first-ever monthly decline in web search volumes. These developments suggest that user behavior is not only changing, but beginning to materially affect Google’s core business metrics.
Apple is reportedly preparing to integrate artificial intelligence search capabilities into its Safari web browser, moving away from its long-time partnership with Google for search. The move comes as a jolt for Google, whose search engine is currently the default browser on Apple iPhones and other devices.
A Growing Pie, But Smaller Slices For Google
There are two concurrent realities in today’s digital ecosystem, according to the Bernstein report.
The overall 'search' pie is expanding, thanks largely to the capabilities unlocked by Gen AI. While, Google's share of that pie is shrinking.
Crucially, the key question for investors becomes whether Google’s slice of the larger pie is still greater than what it would have been without the Gen AI revolution. This is more than a question of absolute growth—it's about relative value and long-term competitive positioning, the report added.
Gen AI is facilitating entirely new types of user queries—generating images, drafting responses, and summarising complex topics. These were never traditional use cases for Google Search. However, while these AI-driven queries offer tremendous utility, many remain difficult to monetise.
The report further highlights that as AI tools improve information accessibility and decision-making, they may drive more commercial activity online. Better research tools could lead to higher conversion rates and more effective targeting—albeit on different platforms.
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Google’s Shrinking Share: A Triple Threat
Bernstein outlined three converging signals of Google’s waning dominance:
User base growth for ChatGPT and Meta AI is approaching one billion.
Google’s paid click growth is at a historic low.
Apple devices are seeing a month-over-month decline in search volumes.
Taken together, Bernstein estimates that Google’s actual share of the search market may now be closer to 65–70%—a significant drop from the oft-quoted 90%.
Google’s position now resembles that of legacy social media platforms that once enjoyed dominant market positions. Just as Meta and Snapchat were scrutinised amid TikTok’s explosive rise, investors are beginning to reframe how they evaluate Google. Revenue growth—once the definitive metric—is increasingly viewed as a lagging indicator.
Google Search is entering the realm of social-like user dynamics, where engagement, retention, and behavioral shifts tell a more complete story of risk and opportunity, the report further added.