UltraTech Cement continues to demonstrate robust operational performance and strategic advancements.
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Systematix Research Report
UltraTech Cement Ltd. reported a strong revenue of Rs 172 billion; largely in line with our expectations, while Ebitda/PAT beat our estimates marginally. Consolidated revenue was up by 2.7% YoY (+10.0% QoQ) to Rs 171.9 billion in line with our estimate of Rs 170.8 billion owing to robust volume growth and stable realizations.
Volume grew 11.2% YoY (+9.1% QoQ) to 30.4 million tonne (in line with our est. of 30.1 mt). Blended Realization/tonne dipped 7.6% YoY and improved 0.8% QoQ to Rs 5,661 in line with our estimates. Ebitda was down by 11.3% YoY but improved 43.1% QoQ to Rs 28.9 billion; versus our estimate of Rs 27.5 billion. Ebitda/tonne was down 20.2% YoY (+31.2% QoQ) to Rs 951.
Power and Fuel cost/tonne declined 14.3% YoY while Freight and other cost/tonne fell 5.3% and 5.8% YoY aiding some Ebitda/tonne recovery. Adjusted PAT was down 16.7% YoY (+78.1% QoQ) to Rs 14.8 billion, versus our estimate of Rs 14.1 billion. PAT margin contracted to 8.6%. Lead distance reduced to 377 kms in Q3 FY25 from 397 kms in Q3 FY24.
We forecast a strong 16%/18%/23% CAGR in revenue/Ebitda/PAT over FY24-26E. We maintain Buy on the stock with a target price of Rs 12,660 based on 20 times FY26E EV/Ebitda. We expect acquisition of Kesoram and India Cement to substantially augment growth.
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