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Prabhudas Lilladher Report
Indian oil and gas sector's operating profit is expected to decline by 24% QoQ to Rs 861 billion mainly on account of weak refining margins of oil marketing companies.
Upstream companies like Oil and Natural Gas Ltd. and Oil India Ltd. are expected to maintain production volumes and net crude realisation of ~$75/barrel of oil post windfall tax. Similarly, gas realisation will remain unchanged QoQ at $6.5/metric million British thermal unit.
Indraprastha Gas Ltd. and Mahanagar Gas Ltd.'s volumes are expected to grow 9%YoY and 7%YoY, while we build in a 31% YoY volume growth in Gujarat Gas Ltd. due to remarkable growth in industrial volumes.
We expect Reliance Industries Ltd.'s oil-to-chemical segment to report lower operating profits with decline in refining margins and weak petchem spreads.
We build in steady telecom performance (+4% QoQ revenue growth) as we build in 2% QoQ average revenue per user growth; retail revenue growth is also expected to be steady.
ONGC remains our top pick in the sector.
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