Higher than estimates volume (+16.0% YoY/+10.3% QoQ to 4.7 million tonne), lower than estimated realization/tn (-14.5% YoY/-3.4% QoQ to Rs 4,640) and lower than estimated cost/tn (-7.8% YoY/-4.8% QoQ to Rs 4,611) resulted in Ebitda/tn of Rs 554.
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Dolat Capital Report
Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Ltd.'s Q3 FY25 results were below estimates, although volume came marginally above estimates.
We expect revenue/Ebitda/adjusted profit after tax compound annual growth rate of 5.2%/7.2%/42.2% over FY24-27E led by 2.7%/6.3%/10.7% volume growth and -6.1%/2.0%/0% realization growth in FY25E/FY26E/FY27E.
We decrease our FY25E Ebitda estimates by 4.7% factoring lower realization/tonne while maintaining FY26E/FY27E estimates. We also increase our multiple from 7.5 times to 8.5x anticipating Vadraj acquisition benefit to materialize in FY28.
Accordingly, we maintain ‘Reduce' rating with revised target price of Rs 348 (8.5 times consolidated FY27E EV/Ebitda and 50% Capital WIP of FY27E).
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