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Prabhudas Lilladher Report
We expect our metals coverage universe to report weak performance in Q3 FY24 with revenue/Ebitda/profit after tax growth of ~0%/0%/-17% QoQ (~4%/30%/121% YoY) given sluggish steel prices and higher coking coal prices.
Domestic demand was relatively weak in this quarter, affected by festivities and state elections. Steel prices declined post October on higher imports.
Though low cost coking coal inventory of earlier months will aid profitability in this quarter yet steel companies may require price hikes in upcoming months to maintain margins, in our view. Key monitorable to watch out are
Government of India's stand on rising imports,
rising coking coal prices,
progress on capex and
demand from China and developed countries.
Our top picks are NMDC Ltd., Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. and Hindalco Industries Ltd.
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