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Motilal Oswal Report
We estimate our coverage universe to report strong volume growth of 10% YoY (three-year compound annual growth rate at ~8%) in Q4 FY24. Further, we estimate average capacity utilization of ~93% versus ~91%/79% in Q4 FY23/Q3 FY24. However, cement price corrected across regions in Q4 and the all-India average cement price was down ~7% (down Rs 25 per 50-kg bag) QoQ. We estimate blended realisation for our coverage universe to decline ~3%/4% YoY/QoQ.
Given the sharp price correction in Q4 FY24, we estimate average Ebitda/tonne to decline ~12% QoQ to Rs 990 (versus our earlier estimate of Rs 1,100), which would partly be offset by positive operating leverage and favorable fuel prices. Aggregate Ebitda is estimated to increase 24% YoY, while operating profit margin is expected to improve by 2.6% YoY to 18.2%.
Grasim Industries Ltd.'s revenue is estimated to decline 3% YoY. Viscose staple fibre volume is estimated to increase 5% YoY, while realisation is estimated to decline 6% YoY (up ~1% QoQ).
Chemical segment volume is estimated to increase 6% YoY, while realization could decline by 20% YoY. We expect the company's EBITDA to increase 20% YoY and Ebitda margin to improve 1.6% YoY to 8%. Adjusted profit after tax is estimated to grow 80% YoY.
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