'Buy' UltraTech, Can Fin Homes, Mastek; 'Add' Havells, JK Cement Says HDFC Securities Post Q1 Results

The brokerage maintains Buy on UltraTech Cement Ltd. with a revised target price of Rs 12,800 (valuing it at 17x Mar-27E consolidated Ebitda). JK Cement’s balance sheet and cash flows are well oiled to achieve its targeted 50 million metric tonne grey cement capacity by 2030. Havells India Ltd.'s revenue declined by 6% YoY to Rs 54.38 bilion due to 34/14/3% de-growth in Lloyd, Electrical consumer durables and lighting and fixtures segment, respectively.

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HDFC Securities Institutional Equities

UltraTech Cement - Expansions to drive volume growth; margin shines

We maintain Buy on UltraTech Cement Ltd. with a revised target price of Rs 12,800 (valuing it at 17x Mar-27E consolidated Ebitda). In Q1 FY26, UltraTech Cements’ delivered 10% volume growth (sub-par +3% like-to-like), aided by India Cements consolidation. Unit Ebitda expanded Rs 72/metric tonne QoQ to Rs 1,197/ MT on healthy pricing.

We estimate ongoing cost reduction projects (for core operations) and new projects from margin enhancements of India Cements and Kesoram to beef up consolidated margin going ahead, leading to a 34% consolidated Ebitda CAGR during FY25-27E.

Havells India - Weak demand—topline declines after 19 quarters

Havells India Ltd.'s revenue declined by 6% YoY to Rs 54.38 bilion due to 34/14/3% de-growth in Lloyd, Electrical consumer durables and lighting and fixtures segment, respectively. However, this overall decline was partially offset by strong growth in cable segment, up 27% YoY, and switchgear segment, up 9% YoY.

Gross margin improved 160bps YoY to 34% due to increased contribution from higher-margin switchgear segment, but Ebitdam fell 40bps to 9.6% on higher employee costs, leading to a 14% YoY drop in adjusted profit after tax.

Management is hopeful demand will pick up in H2 FY26. Lloyd channel inventory has reduced in the second half of Q1 FY26 but is still elevated. Factoring in the weak Q1 performance, we have cut our revenue estimates by 5/4% and APAT estimates by 6/5% for FY26/27E.

We maintain Add and value the company at 50x Mar27E EPS to arrive at a target price of Rs 1,575/share.

JK Cement - All-round performance continues

We maintain our Add rating on JK Cement Ltd. with a revised target price of Rs 6,125/sh (15x Mar-27E consolidated Ebitda). Our positive stance is driven by JK Cement’s continued outperformance on both volumes and margin front.

We estimate JK Cement will continue to deliver industry-leading 11% consolidated volume CAGR during FY25-27E and the superior blended unit Ebitda of Rs 1,200/1,331 per MT. In Q1 FY25, JK Cement continued it robust show: strong traction in the grey cement drove up consolidated volume by 15% YoY and blended unit Ebitda remained healthy at Rs 1,230 (+Rs 229/MT YoY, -Rs 37/MT QoQ).

JK Cement’s balance sheet and cash flows are well oiled to achieve its targeted 50 million metric tonne grey cement capacity by 2030. Even in the putty space, the upcoming expansion will help the company utilize its surplus white cement capacity to augment putty market share in India.

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