Nirmal Bang still believes that a full-fledged recovery in volumes for the mass category to prepandemic levels for Bata and V-Mart will take time, mainly due to competitive intensity from organized, unorganized, and e-commerce players.
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Nirmal Bang Report
Q1 is usually a good quarter for the retail industry. We believe that the mass rural categories have been recovering well for the past couple of quarters, but this quarter is expected to be dull due to a dry wedding season and lack of festivals; EID fell in Mar-25 this year.
V-Mart has pre-announced that the total revenue for Q1 FY26 would be up 12.6% YoY, which is below our and consensus expectation, due to muted SSSG of 1% YoY (V-Mart at +1% and Unlimited at +1%).
For Bata India, we expect pick up in the value category coupled with an already strong premium portfolio to be the key driver of the ~7% YoY revenue growth.
We still believe that a full-fledged recovery in volumes for the mass category to prepandemic levels for the two companies will take time, mainly due to competitive intensity from organized, unorganized, and e-commerce players.
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