Brazil’s Bolsonaro Sentenced To 27 Years In Prison For Plotting Coup

Brazil’s Supreme Court sentenced Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years and three months in prison for plotting a coup after his 2022 election defeat, making him the first former president convicted of such a crime in a nation long scarred by successful and failed power grabs.

The sentence was decided on Thursday by a panel of five justices who oversaw the case. Four of them voted in favor of Bolsonaro’s conviction on charges that he sought to cling to power by plotting a military coup that included plans to assassinate President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

While the charges carried a maximum sentence of 43 years in prison, the justices took into account the 70-year-old Bolsonaro’s age and ongoing health problems in determining the punishment.

Bolsonaro’s lawyers are expected to appeal his sentence. As a former head of state, he is entitled to serve his term in a special facility rather than a regular prison, though the court has not specified where.

The case is considered a landmark moment for democracy in a country that has suffered four successful coups and many more failed attempts in its history. It is also likely to have ramifications at home and abroad, potentially reshaping the 2026 election while inviting additional blowback from Donald Trump, who slapped steep US tariffs on many Brazilian goods and sanctions on a Supreme Court judge in an effort to stop the trial.

For now, the US president hasn’t given clear indication about additional measures against Brazil.

“I watched that trial. I know him pretty well — foreign leader, he was a good, I thought he was a good president of Brazil,” Trump said as he was leaving the White House on a trip to New York City. “That’s very much like they tried to do with me, but they didn’t get away with it, at all.”

Bolsonaro’s case stems from an investigation into the Jan. 8, 2023 insurrection attempt in Brasilia, where thousands of his supporters stormed federal buildings while urging the military to oust Lula a week after he took office.

Brazil’s top prosecutor charged Bolsonaro and seven allies, including military personnel and ministers from his administration, with plotting a coup and four other crimes. His lawyer argued that prosecutors failed to link him to the insurrection or any plot against Lula, adding that the coup was never actually carried out.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes cast the first vote to convict Bolsonaro on Tuesday, saying there’s “no doubt that there was an attempted coup,” and was joined by Justice Flavio Dino. Justices Carmen Lucia and Cristiano Zanin considered Bolsonaro guilty on all charges on Thursday.

The only dissenter was Justice Luiz Fux, who voted to acquit him on all charges. Claiming the panel lacked jurisdiction, he also sought to annul the case. While that bid failed, his arguments may support a possible appeal.

Trump Ally

Bolsonaro, a former Army captain, so thoroughly modeled his political approach on his US counterpart that he became known as “the Trump of the Tropics” during his unexpected rise to Brazil’s presidency in 2018.

The comparisons have only intensified since the 2023 riots, which erupted in the wake of Bolsonaro’s spreading of conspiracy theories about voter fraud and occurred almost two years to the day after the insurrection attempt that followed Trump’s 2020 loss.

Trump later faced charges that he’d illegally conspired to obstruct that election, but prosecutors dropped them after he won the 2024 contest, citing Justice Department policy against prosecuting a sitting president.

Bolsonaro bet big on his ally’s help, and his son Eduardo, a lawmaker, earlier this year moved to the US to lobby the White House to intervene on his father’s behalf.

Trump in July blasted the trial as a “witch hunt” and later implemented 50% tariffs on Brazil. He also placed sanctions on Moraes, the judge who has overseen Bolsonaro’s case, and revoked his US visa.

But Brazil refused to bend. Moraes opened the trial by insisting that the nation’s sovereignty “will never be violated, negotiated or extorted.” Lula also blasted the US leader for attempting to intervene in Brazilian affairs, while casting Bolsonaro and Eduardo as traitors to their nation.

The court, Lula’s government and Brazilian banks have all braced for additional US backlash as the trial has progressed, including potential sanctions on other Supreme Court judges.

Asked about Brazil on Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump sees it as a fight against “censorship” and is “unafraid to use the economic might, the military might of the United States of America to protect free speech around the world.”

2026 Election

The final verdict would make Bolsonaro the third of Brazil’s last seven presidents found guilty of crimes. Lula, who previously governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010, was convicted of corruption in 2017, and spent nearly two years behind bars before the annulment of his case paved the way for a return to the presidency.

Although Bolsonaro insists he will run again next year, an immediate comeback is unlikely due to an eight-year political ban he received for casting doubt on the country’s voting system before the 2022 contest.

Investors and centrist party leaders have viewed the trial as a point at which he will finally have to name a successor, with many favoring Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, a former minister in Bolsonaro’s government.

“Bolsonaro’s arrest ends up favoring a second option like Tarcisio,” said Felipe Arslan, CEO at Morada Capital. “You eliminate Bolsonaro’s chance of becoming eligible, and you have this second option that boosts market optimism with the election.”

Brazilian markets showed little reaction to Bolsonaro’s conviction, which had been largely priced in even before the trial began. While a US response remains a risk, investors see little impact on the broader economic outlook: fresh sanctions are considered unlikely, and any measures would likely target individuals — possibly even Supreme Court justices — rather than Brazil’s economy.

For now, Freitas has denied that he intends to run, but has ramped up efforts to appeal to the former president’s base. He accused the court of “tyranny” and called the trial “tainted” during a Sunday rally.

He also called for legislation granting Bolsonaro legal amnesty, an idea that has gained traction in the lower house but is facing Senate pushback and would likely be subject to constitutional challenges in the Supreme Court.

Bolsonaro’s efforts to maintain control over the political movement he built have also fueled speculation that he could throw his weight behind a family member next year.

Eduardo has expressed interest in running if his father cannot, although he is now facing potential criminal charges after police accused him of obstructing justice ahead of the trial.

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro — the erstwhile leader’s eldest son — and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro have also been seen as potential successors from within the powerful conservative family.