Three Reasons Why Raj Thackeray Couldn't Succeed In Politics

Raj Thackeray has been a prominent figure in Maharashtra's political sphere for the past three decades. Known for his oratory skills, he often makes headlines during election seasons. However, after a humiliating defeat in the Vidhan Sabha elections that has decimated his party, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, questions are now being raised about his relevance in politics.

The MNS, which won 13 seats in its debut Vidhan Sabha elections in 2009 and posed a significant challenge to the Shiv Sena, led by his cousin Uddhav Thackeray, has now been reduced to near insignificance. So, what went wrong for Raj Thackeray? Based on years of observing his political trajectory and speaking to his close associates, here are three key reasons:

When Raj Thackeray broke away from the Shiv Sena in 2005 and launched his own party the following year, he chose to champion the Marathi cause. The MNS agenda focused on driving out "outsiders" who were allegedly taking jobs from locals and undermining Marathi culture in cinema, FM radio, and shop signage. His tirades against North Indians made headlines and even led to riots in 2008, after a provocative speech that resulted in his arrest. He maintained that his only allegiance was to "Maharashtra Dharma", steering clear of communal politics.

However, in January 2020, he shifted gears and adopted Hindutva as his party’s ideology. He replaced the party’s multi-coloured flag with a saffron one and protested against loudspeakers in mosques by playing the Hanuman Chalisa. His supporters were asked to call him 'Hindu Jana Nayak', much like Bal Thackeray was hailed as 'Hindu Hriday Samrat'. This ideological flip-flop alienated voters, who struggled to reconcile the shift with his earlier stance.

Raj Thackeray’s stance towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been inconsistent. In 2011, he praised Modi after visiting Gujarat. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, he expressed support for Modi while parallelly fielding MNS candidates in constituencies where the BJP's ally, Shiv Sena, was contesting. This contradictory approach backfired, and the MNS failed to win a single seat.

In 2019, Thackeray took an anti-Modi stance during his rallies, using video clips to accuse Modi of hypocrisy. He opposed Modi’s bullet train project, claiming it favoured Gujarat over Maharashtra. However, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut alleged that after being summoned by the Enforcement Directorate, Thackeray ceased his criticism of Modi. Later, he even offered “unconditional support” to Modi for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

MNS General Secretary Vageesh Saraswat admitted that the party’s inconsistent approach was evident in the 2024 Vidhan Sabha elections as well. “If you are saying that Mahayuti will come to power and Devendra Fadnavis will become the CM, why would people vote for MNS candidates?” he remarked.

Many political observers believe that Thackeray’s frequent volte-faces have left voters confused about his vision and intentions.

In a democracy, political parties aim to secure power by winning elections. However, ahead of the 2019 Vidhan Sabha polls, Thackeray announced that his party was contesting to sit in the opposition. This baffled both the public and political pundits. Why would voters support a party that openly declared it had no intention of forming a government?

Such statements undermined the party’s credibility, as people typically vote for parties they believe can address their concerns by becoming part of the government.

Raj Thackeray’s MNS is now on the verge of losing its election symbol, the railway engine. Thackeray has not commented on the recent Vidhan Sabha results, except for posting one word on social media: “Unbelievable.”

Many experts are writing off Raj Thackeray from Maharashtra’s political landscape. However, he still has a chance to reclaim relevance in the upcoming civic body elections, including those for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation. In the last BMC elections, the MNS managed to secure seven corporators, but six of them defected to the Shiv Sena.

Only time will tell whether Raj Thackeray can stage a political comeback or if this marks the end of the road for the MNS.

Jitendra Dixit is a Contributing Editor of NDTV and author of the book Bombay After Ayodhya.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of NDTV Profit or its editorial team.