How Do You Sell America On A Recession?

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump was all bluster and magical thinking, promising to immediately fix what he dubbed President Joe Biden’s weak, inflation-riddled economy and to bring relief to millions of Americans struggling with high prices. As president, Trump and his administration are full of useless advice for Americans, encouraging backyard chicken coops to deal with the price of eggs and patience as retirement investment accounts take a beating and costs remain stubbornly high.

And the policies and pronouncements of his first weeks in office have imperiled an economy that was the envy of the world post-Covid, and made it the source of recession fears, chaos and all-around agita. But fear not, there will be economic paradise, Trump has said, after this period of “disturbance.” It is a rhetorical shift, from a promise of immediate results to a delayed outcome, that will test Trump’s skills as a salesman able to create his own reality.

So far, voters aren’t buying what Trump is selling, with 53% saying increased tariffs will hurt the economy, according to an Emerson College poll conducted March 8-10. The same poll shows a plurality of voters (46%) saying Trump’s economic policies are making the economy worse. A CNN poll shows that 56% of Americans disapprove of the way he is handling the economy. Americans are increasingly worried about the US economic outlook and expecting price hikes for housing, college, gas and groceries according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Their bosses are worried, too: a poll of 220 US CEOs found business confidence at the lowest level since 2012. And the NFIB survey of small business owners found soaring uncertainty

Conventional political wisdom suggests that Trump and Republicans will suffer if the economy sours. Yet the midterms are still more than a year away, and it’s not even clear that Trump cares about who controls Congress, given that he has enacted much of his agenda without it. His approval ratings, now at about 45%, are bolstered by his loyal base who won’t shift their allegiance. And a majority of voters give Trump about six months to a year to bring down grocery prices.

Yet, impatience, frustration and disappointment could grow if the overall economy falters in ways that directly impact average voters. Hence Trump’s attempt to hard-sell this anticipated economic slowdown as a period of “detox.”

“I don’t see [a recession] at all. I think this country is gonna boom. As I said, I can do it the easy way or the hard way. The hard way to do it is exactly what I’m doing, but the results are gonna be 20 times greater,” Trump said on Tuesday. “And remember, Trump is always right. If you look at what I’ve said over the last ten 10 years, Trump has been right.”

Trump has frequently changed his story on the why of tariffs, sometimes citing the flow of fentanyl and undocumented immigrants as the reason to use them as an on-again-off-again negotiating tool. But, now, there seems to be a more regularly cited reason — tariffs will force big business to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US.

In the meantime, the stock market has given back its post-election gains, and is now nearing correction territory. According to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index, the wealthy businessmen who sat behind him at his inauguration have lost $209 billion. Steel and aluminum tariffs went into effect today, which will likely increase prices and continue to roil markets. And farmers, who took a big hit during Trump’s last trade war, with some sectors like soybeans never fully recovering, are again facing uncertainty, with China implementing tariffs on agriculture goods.

But, clear skies ahead. At some point.

“Someone has to right-size the ship, and he’s been very clear,” Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Tuesday. “It’s going to be a little bit bumpy for maybe a few weeks or maybe a few months, but at the end, his vision, and again, what we are effectuating, is that our American farmers and ranchers, but truly, all Americans, will be moving into an era of greater prosperity.”

When that might be is anyone’s guess.

Perhaps a century?

“What I have to do is build a strong country,” the president told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo in an interview that aired Sunday. “You can’t really watch the stock market. If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective. We have a quarter. We go by quarters. And you can’t go by that.”

Trump’s no-pain-no-gain excuse will likely be deployed for many months — possibly many years — and certainly for many scenarios. Some bumps in the road because thousands of federal workers aren’t on the job? No worries, prosperity and efficiency are just around the corner.

As my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Timothy L. O’Brien wrote on Monday, Trump’s only concern is Trump. And for the president, this is a power play akin to a wrestling match — if you apply enough pressure, your opponent gives up and Canadians become Americans, the streets are paved with tariff gold and the trillions in debt are wiped away.

On Tuesday, as the markets tumbled and many older Americans saw their retirement accounts dwindle, Trump stood on the White House grounds with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, head of DOGE. Musk’s company has taken a hit because of tariffs and his ties to Trump. So Trump, standing in front of a fleet of Teslas, wanted to help his biggest donor by purchasing one of his cars and making a big show of it.

“When someone is a great patriot, they shouldn’t be hurt,” Trump said, when asked if he wanted to boost Tesla’s stock price and sales. “He’s a great patriot.”

America is full of great patriots and many will be hurt by Trump’s tariff plans. Yet, there is no intervention on the horizon to blunt the economic hardships ahead for those ordinary Americans, among them, millions of Trump voters. And that says much about where Trump’s priorities are and who he cares most about.