Assembly Elections 2023: How Numbers Stack Up In Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan And Telangana

The last leg of the elections of 2023 has started with the first phase of polling in Chhattisgarh and Mizoram on Nov 7. The month-long campaign ends on Dec. 3 when the results will be declared. Of the five states (Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh), the Congress party is in power in two, the BJP in one and regional parties in another two.

While state and national elections relationship is like apples and oranges comparison, the results will provide a leg-up to whichever party gains advantage in these semi finals of sorts.

The BJP has been in power in Madhya Pradesh for the past 20 years except for a brief 15 month stint of the Congress. From 2003 to 2013, in a span of four elections, the state witnessed a one-sided election winning a comfortable majority.

In 2018, Congress gave a tough fight to the BJP riding on the 15 year anti-incumbency and emerged as the single largest party with 114 seats, 2 short of majority. Shivraj Singh Chouhan also put up a strong fight despite fatigue factor winning 109 seats.

In terms of vote share, the BJP enjoyed a lead of 8%-10% in 2003 and 2013. In 2008, Uma Bharti floated her own party, reducing the lead to 5%. In 2018, both parties were tied at 41% vote share.

The BSP has an average vote share of 7%, other smaller parties average 16% and spoiled the chances of both main parties in different seats and regions.

In 2023, surveys predict a close contest with Congress marginally ahead as the party has become structurally weak having not won 74 swats in the last three polls. Both parties have flipped strategy with the Congress fighting a Presidential style contest under Kamal Nath and the BJP a seat-by-seat battle, choosing not to project Chouhan as its chief ministerial face, seeking votes in name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and projecting a combined leadership.

Rajasthan follows a revolving door mechanism since 1993, with people voting out the incumbent. Surveys predict the riwaz is likely to be maintained. Of the six elections, three—in 1993, 2008 and 2018—have thrown a marginally hung assembly situation.

While BJP wins, it wins big like in 2003 (120 seats) and 2013 (163 seats). When the Congress wins, after its grand tally of 153 seats in 1998, it has not been able to cross the halfway mark in 2008 (96 seats) and 2018 (99 seats) as the party faces structural challenges.

In the last three polls, it has never won 54 seats, thus requiring a very high strike rate in other seats to achieve a simple majority. Smaller parties like the BSP, the RLP, the BTP and independents have significant presence in the state and play a role in government formation.

In terms of vote share, the contest has been very tight in the 2-5% range. In landslide elections of 1998 and 2013, the vote share gap was 12%, resulting in a seat-share gap of 120-140 seats. The BJP is strong in two of the five regions, Harouti and Mewar, due to which it never loses as badly as the Congress, resulting in a tie in vote share in 2018.

The Congress has not declared a CM face despite Ashok Gehlot running an PR blitz for a comeback to keep Sachin Pilot in good humour.

Likewise, the BJP has not declared Vasundhara Raje as its CM face and has many aspirants for the top job. Gehlot launched a slew of welfare schemes to woo the voters, while the BJP is relying on riwaz and popularity of Modi to make a comeback.

The BJP has been in power in Chhattisgarh for 15 and Congress for the past five years. Chhattisgarh has always witnessed a close contest in terms of vote share, only 2018 was a one sided election with the Congress sweeping the state with 68 seats riding on 15 years of anti-incumbency of Raman Singh.

From 2003-2013, the vote share gap between the BJP and the Congress was in the range of 0.7% to 2.5%. In all these the elections, the BSP recorded higher vote share than the margin of victory with an average of 5%. In 2018, the BSP formed an alliance with Ajit Jogi who broke away from the Congress and formed his own party JCC.

While it was believed that JCC would damage the Congress, it actually damaged the BJP more (-8%), winning five seats on its debut elections bagging 7% vote share.

In this tribal state (a third of the population), ED has made its entry with kickback allegations against CM Baghel by banned Mahadev App owners. A weakened JCC gives hope to the BJP to give a tough fight to the Congress with the state reverting to the trend of close elections, according to the surveys. 80% of the population is directly and indirectly dependent upon agriculture, bonus for paddy, farm loan waivers, free electricity are key issues along with tribal rights and corruption.

Telangana

In Telangana, the TRS, now BRS, government led by K Chandrasekhar Rao has been in power for the last 10 years. He and his party are credited with the formation of Telangana. In 2014, TRS won 63 seats with the Congress 21 and the TDP 15. With the TDP weakened, the TRS grew at its expense in the state also helped by MLAs hopping from the Congress. In 2018, TRS swept the state, winning 88 of the 119 seats on offer bagging 47.4% vote share (+13%), with the Congress distant second with 19 seats and 28.7 vote share (+3.5%).

In the last five years, the BJP adopted an aggressive approach in the state in a bid to displace the Congress as the number two position in the state, taking advantage of the weakening Congress nationally. Till some six months ago, it was expected that the contest was between the Congress and the BJP for the second spot. However, after the Congress won Karnataka, things have grown hotter in the state.

The Congress has been able to drive home the narrative that the BJP and AIMIM are the B-Team of TRS and are helping the party to defeat the Congress. The AIMIM and the BJP could play a role in the Hyderabad region and split the opposition vote, helping the BRS.

Surveys predict a close race with the BRS marginally ahead, and the Congress making the contest close. Can KCR bail out BRS?

Price rise, poverty, unemployment, corruption and development are some of the common issues across states. With parties campaigning aggressively, we will know on Dec. 3 whose narrative worked on the ground.

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was previously a corporate and investment banker.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of BQ Prime or its editorial team.