October Rains Forecast: India To Receive 15% More Rainfall Than Normal
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said maximum temperatures in October are likely to be above normal in most parts of east-northeast and northwest India.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said that the country is expected to receive 15% more rainfall than normal in October. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said maximum temperatures in October are likely to be above normal in most parts of east-northeast and northwest India.
"Normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are expected in other regions of the country during the month," he told news agency PTI. Mohapatra said most parts of the country are expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the post-monsoon season (October to December), except for some areas in northwest India, where rainfall is likely to be normal to below-normal.
The IMD forecast suggests that the Northeast Monsoon (October to December) rainfall over south peninsular India, comprising five meteorological subdivisions of Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka, is most likely to be above normal.
The Long Period Average (LPA) of rainfall over South Peninsular India during the October to December season, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is approximately 334.13 mm.
The country is likely to receive above-normal rainfall in October (more than 115 % of the LPA of 75.4 mm), Mohapatra added.
He attributed this to the development of low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, along with intra-seasonal variability and other large-scale atmospheric processes.
However, some areas in northwest India, along with isolated pockets in the southern peninsula and northeast India, may experience normal to below-normal rainfall in October.
October Rains Forecast
Rainfall Prediction in October
The probability forecast indicates that most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, except many parts of northwest India and some parts of extreme south peninsular India and northeast India, where rainfall is likely to be below-normal. The dotted area shown in the map receives very less rainfall during October to December season as per climatology and the white shaded areas within the main land represent no signal from the model.
It may be noted that while above-normal rainfall can benefit agriculture and water resources, it also brings heightened risks, including flooding, transport disruptions, public health concerns, and ecological impacts. Given these potential hazards, anticipatory actions may be initiated for the season. It is crucial to utilise the early warning services provided by IMD, which include timely impact-based forecasts and risk-based warnings against heavy rainfall, flood and associated hazards.
The IMD has urged the authorities to adopt a proactive approach by reinforcing infrastructure, developing contingency plans, and responding promptly to forecasts/warnings and advisories. Such preparedness can support efficient resource mobilisation, safeguard vulnerable communities, and help protect lives and livelihoods during adverse weather events.
