Mumbai To Receive Heavy Rains? Signs Of 1st Cyclone Of Post-Monsoon Season In Arabian Sea
"As of now, the probability of this system intensifying into a cyclonic storm is not very high," an IMD official said.
Meteorologists have picked up the first signs of a possible cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea but are still unsure about its intensity. There is a cyclonic circulation over the southeast Arabian Sea and the adjoining Lakshadweep region.
Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region, an official at the India Meteorological Department said.
"As of now, the probability of this system intensifying into a cyclonic storm is not very high. The models have yet to confirm it. There is no unanimity in the model forecasts so far. We will have to wait for a few more days for a clear picture to emerge," news agency PTI quoted the official as saying.
Here's What IMD Said On Possibility Of Cyclone
"Yesterday’s cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep area and adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea and Kerala coast now lies over Southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area in lower tropospheric levels and extends up to 3.1 km above mean sea level," the IMD said in its daily weather release on Monday.
"Under its influence, a Low-Pressure Area is likely to develop over the southeast and adjoining east-central Arabian sea during the next 48 hours. It is likely to move further west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over central Arabian sea around 21st October 2023," the weather agency added.
Cyclone 'Tej'
October to December is among the favourable periods for the development of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea due to warmer ocean temperatures.
No tropical storm formed over the Arabian Sea during the post-monsoon season in 2022. In contrast, the Bay of Bengal saw two tropical storms, Sitrang and Mandous.
Therefore, it said the statistical probability of cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea becomes higher. If a tropical storm forms in the Indian Seas, it will be named 'Tej', according to the formula followed for naming cyclones in the Indian Ocean region.
Skymet Weather added that cyclones in the Arabian Sea have a history of uncertain tracks and timelines.
Meteorologists often struggle to decisively predict their subsequent movements. Typically, once they are over the central parts of the Arabian Sea, the preferred track is towards Somalia, the Gulf of Aden, Yemen, and Oman.
However, on a few occasions, these cyclones take a detour and head towards the Gujarat and Pakistan coastline, it said.
'Mumbai Won't See Much Rain'
Mumbai Rains (@rushikesh_agre_), a verified X handle also posted about the possibility of a cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea.
"Good news, India mostly is in the clear! Our latest forecast suggests the Low-Pressure Area (LPA) will soon evolve into a powerful Cyclone, but fear not, it's tracking away from our coast in the start, which is always a crucial timeline for a Cyclone. Would have been a concern if it would have headed towards India from the start," the X handle said in a post.
"Mumbai won't see much rain due to this, however, night temperatures will cool to 22-23°C as a side effect. Pune will also see dip in temperatures, 16-17°C near October 22-25. South Konkan can get rain due to this, less chances for Mumbai as said earlier," it added.
(With PTI inputs)
