Monsoon 2025 To Arrive Early: A Look At Forecast Vs Actual Onset Dates In Last Five Years
According to IMD, over the past two decades (2005 to 2024), the weather agency has largely maintained a strong track record in forecasting the onset of the monsoon, missing the date only once, in 2015
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is likely to make its onset over the Kerala coast on May 27, 2025, with a margin of error of ±4 days. The arrival of the monsoon over Kerala is an important event, signalling the transition from the hot, dry summer to the much-anticipated rainy season across the Indian subcontinent.
In its latest press release issued on May 12, IMD mentioned that conditions are favourable for the advance of southwest monsoon into some parts of Andaman Sea, South Bay of Bengal, and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by May 13. Conditions are also becoming favourable for further advance of monsoon over some parts of the south Arabian Sea, Maldives & Comorin area; it will also advance to some more parts of South Bay of Bengal, entire Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Andaman Sea; and some parts of central Bay of Bengal during subsequent 4-5 days.
Historically, the monsoon usually arrives in Kerala around June 1, with a standard deviation of around seven days. Early, or delayed, onsets are not uncommon and can have significant implications for agriculture, water resources and overall weather patterns across the country.
According to IMD, over the past two decades (2005 to 2024), the weather agency has largely maintained a strong track record in forecasting the onset of the monsoon, missing the date only once, in 2015.
Here’s a look at the forecast versus the actual monsoon onset dates over the last five years:
Rising Temperatures Expected Across Several Regions
The IMD has also predicted a gradual rise in maximum temperatures across several regions of India in the coming days. In Northwest India and Gujarat, temperatures are expected to rise by 3°C to 5°C over the next six days. Central India is likely to see a 2°C to 3°C increase during the same period.
Jharkhand and northern interior Odisha may witness a 2°C to 3°C rise over the next two days. Meanwhile, interior Maharashtra is likely to remain stable for the next 24 hours, followed by a gradual increase of 2°C to 4°C over the next five days.
Heatwave conditions are likely in isolated pockets of sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Bihar from May 12 to 14. Gangetic West Bengal may experience a heatwave on May 12 and 15, while Jharkhand may be affected on May 13 and 14.
North coastal Odisha is likely to face heatwave conditions between May 13 and 15. East and West Uttar Pradesh may experience rising heat between May 14 and 17, and West Rajasthan on May 17.
