Southwest Monsoon 2025: India will experience above-normal cumulative rainfall this monsoon, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday, ruling out the possibility of El Nino conditions during the entire season. Most parts of India, except regions like north-east are likely to experience normal to above normal rainfall this year.
On Tuesday, the IMD held a press conference sharing details about the forecast of seasonal rainfall in India, which falls between June and September period. A normal monsoon is defined as rainfall between 96% and 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA), while anything 105% or more is considered above normal.
LPA is the average rainfall recorded over many years. “The LPA of the season rainfall over the county as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm,” the IMD said.
Long Range Forecast For the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall during 2025
April 15, 2025
The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal(>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)).
Quantitatively, the… pic.twitter.com/5yHYgC1cUKIMD Chief's Remarks On Monsoon
"India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall estimated at 105 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm," India Meteorological Department (IMD) chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference in New Delhi.
The forecast indicates that India could experience a significant boost in economic activity through agricultural productivity.
According to the IMD, there is a strong probability (59%) that southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall will be above normal or higher.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra also shared that their models indicated that neutral ENSO conditions, where neither El Nino or La Nina dominates, are likely to prevail during the 2025 monsoon.
El Nino is a climate pattern, which is marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures. Similarly, La Nina is characterised by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures.
The weather agency also pointed out that the northern hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months was below normal. This is a significant observation as the winter and spring snow cover extent over the northern hemisphere and Eurasia has an inverse relationship with the subsequent summer monsoon rainfall conditions in India, the IMD explained.
The snow cover of the northern hemisphere is one of the three indicators that IMD looks at in its assessment model. El Nino and IOD or neutral Indian Ocean Dipole are two other factors. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a climate pattern where warm waters shift westward during a positive phase. During the negative phase, this pattern reverses.
The IMD explained that positive IOD is linked to good monsoon rainfall. This year, neutral IOD conditions are likely to prevail during the southwest monsoon season, it said.
Check IMD's Long Range Forecast For the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall during 2025 PDF document below.
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