'Ganga's Worst Drought In 1,300 Years': IIT Study Sounds Warning Bell For 60 Crore Citizens

The Ganga is drying up faster than it did in 1,300 years, according to a study conducted by IIT Gandhinagar and University of Arizona researchers. Researchers also warned that the river, which is a lifeline to more than 60 crore citizens, living across India, Nepal, and Bangladesh faces significant hydrological changes under future warming.

Hydrological changes broadly refer to shifts in natural patterns, streamflow of water on earth. Precipitation and water distribution alterations are also part of these changes.

The study which was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, highlighted that the river’s downfall since the early 1990s has been more severe than even the mega-droughts of the 16th and 18th centuries.

Researchers used instrumental data, paleoclimate records and advanced hydrological models to recreate Ganga's streamflow over the past 13 centuries.

The lead author of the study, IIT Gandhinagar's Dipesh Singh Chuphal was quoted by Times of India saying, "The Ganga has faced frequent and prolonged droughts in the last three decades, with the 2004-2010 drought ranking as the most severe in over a millennium."

The study stated that while the earlier droughts were primarily a result of natural monsoon variability, there has been a growing influence of human induced factors. Intensifying aerosol pollution, along with the heating up of the Indian Ocean make up for part of why of summer monsoons' decline in their strength.

The decline in monsoon have led to a reduced basin rainfall by nearly 10% since the 1950s, with western regions seeing declines of over 30%. The study underlined, "Reduced summer monsoon rainfall is the primary driver of declining river flow, while warming has a smaller impact.

However, under extreme climate scenarios, if rainfall deficits combine with higher temperatures, streamflow could fall sharply, by 5% to 35%". The Ganga is being "pushed beyond its natural limits" because of human activities like excessive groundwater extraction.

Historically low water levels between 2015 and 2017 crippled drinking water supplies, irrigation, power generation and navigation; impacting nearly 12 crore livelihoods. The study stated that a dip in freshwater discharge is also reducing nutrient flow into the Bay of Bengal, threatening one of the world’s most productive marine ecosystems.

The Ganga basin, which not only contributes 40% to India's GDP, is also the spine of the subcontinent's agricultural heartland. With prolonged droughts becoming more frequent, the study emphasised on urgent reforms in water governance, better monsoon forecasting, and sustainable groundwater management,